Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 10/08, 21:15
Prediction: Santa Clara vs Nacional
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.29Total
Santa Clara1.42
Nacional0.87
1X2
Santa Clara
Draw
Nacional
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Santa Clara
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Nacional
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Santa Clara
2–2–2
Nacional
(6 last)
- Santa Clara2-0Nacional
- Nacional3-3Santa Clara
- Santa Clara1-0Nacional
- Nacional2-0Santa Clara
- Santa Clara0-1Nacional
- Santa Clara0-0Nacional
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Santa Clara 1526 · Nacional 1488
| Santa Clara | Draw | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 30% | 22% |
| Market | 49% | 29% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Santa Clara | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5 | 3 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.2 | 5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Santa Clara 2–2–2 Nacional
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Santa Clara | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Nacional |
| 11/01/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Nacional | 3-3 HT 2-2 | Santa Clara |
| 30/03/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Santa Clara | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Nacional |
| 04/11/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Nacional | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Santa Clara |
| 17/03/24 Portugal Segunda Liga | Santa Clara | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Nacional |
| 11/01/24 Portugal Cup | Santa Clara | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nacional |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Estrela | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | Sporting | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Alverca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | FC Porto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Nacional | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Rio Ave | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Santa Clara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Braga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Guimaraes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Santa Clara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Moreirense Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 11/05 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 18/04 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 11/04 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 03/04 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-3 | 2-4 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 21/03 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 15/03 | AVS Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
Nacional
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Maritimo Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 22/07 | Leganes Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 11/05 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | AVS Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 04/04 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 21/03 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Santa Clara vs Nacional?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Santa Clara win (49%). Probabilities: Santa Clara 49%, draw 29%, Nacional 22%.
How many goals are expected in Santa Clara vs Nacional?
The model expects 2.29 goals (Santa Clara 1.42 · Nacional 0.87), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Nacional?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.