Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 09/08, 21:30

Prediction: Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Gil Vicente1.64

Rio Ave1.05

1X2

50% 27% 23%

Gil Vicente Draw Rio Ave

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gil Vicente 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDLWDLLW

Rio Ave 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDLDLDW

Head-to-head

Gil Vicente 0–5–1 Rio Ave (6 last)

Rio Ave0-0Gil Vicente
Gil Vicente2-2Rio Ave
Rio Ave1-1Gil Vicente
Gil Vicente1-1Rio Ave
Rio Ave3-0Gil Vicente
Gil Vicente1-1Rio Ave

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gil Vicente 1483 · Rio Ave 1502

	Gil Vicente	Draw	Rio Ave
Our model	50%	27%	23%
Market	50%	27%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gil Vicente	Rio Ave
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.3	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.50

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.60
2	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.18 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:36 +5’	1.85	3.50	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:40	1.85	3.60	4.18

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gil Vicente 0–5–1 Rio Ave

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Rio Ave	0-0 HT 0-0	Gil Vicente
20/12/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Gil Vicente	2-2 HT 1-1	Rio Ave
16/05/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Rio Ave	1-1 HT 1-1	Gil Vicente
06/01/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Gil Vicente	1-1 HT 1-0	Rio Ave
06/04/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Rio Ave	3-0 HT 2-0	Gil Vicente
12/11/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Gil Vicente	1-1 HT 0-0	Rio Ave

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Academico Viseu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Casa Pia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Estoril	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Estrela	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alverca	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Arouca	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Famalicao	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Porto	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gil Vicente	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Maritimo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Moreirense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rio Ave	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Santa Clara	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Benfica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sporting	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guimaraes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gil Vicente	Rio Ave
Sporting	0-3 L	1-4 L
Casa Pia	2-1 W	1-1 D
Guimaraes	0-1 L	0-2 L
Tondela	2-2 D	3-1 W
AVS	3-0 W	2-2 D
Santa Clara	0-1 L	2-0 W
Alverca	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Gil Vicente (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Gil Vicente

DLWDLWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	FC Porto Elite Club Friendlies	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
16/05	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-3	1	1	L
11/05	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-3	6	3	L
03/05	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
27/04	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	4	8	W
18/04	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	10	4	L
13/04	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	5	6	D
03/04	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
21/03	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
14/03	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-2	3	4	D

Rio Ave

WWLWDLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Tondela Europe Friendlies	0-1	3-1	0	0	W
16/05	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	0	1	D
11/05	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	1-2	1-4	5	7	L
03/05	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
25/04	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	5	8	L
17/04	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
11/04	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
04/04	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	1-2	8	3	L
22/03	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
15/03	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-1	10	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gil Vicente win (50%). Probabilities: Gil Vicente 50%, draw 27%, Rio Ave 23%.

How many goals are expected in Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Gil Vicente 1.64 · Rio Ave 1.05), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.