Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 08/08, 21:30
Prediction: Estrela vs Sporting
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.21Total
Estrela0.62
Sporting2.59
1X2
Estrela
Draw
Sporting
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Estrela
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Sporting
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Estrela
0–6
Sporting
(6 last)
- Estrela0-1Sporting
- Sporting4-0Estrela
- Estrela0-3Sporting
- Sporting5-1Estrela
- Estrela1-2Sporting
- Sporting3-2Estrela
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Estrela 1454 · Sporting 1612
| Estrela | Draw | Sporting | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 6% | 15% | 79% |
| Market | 6% | 14% | 79% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting (rating 1454 vs 1612).
- H2H favours Sporting: 6-0-0.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Estrela | Sporting | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.5 | 3.3 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 1.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.8 | 4.3 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.2 | 2.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Estrela 0–0–6 Sporting
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Estrela | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sporting |
| 30/11/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Sporting | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Estrela |
| 29/03/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Estrela | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Sporting |
| 01/11/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Sporting | 5-1 HT 3-1 | Estrela |
| 29/03/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Estrela | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Sporting |
| 05/11/23 Portugal Primeira Liga | Sporting | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Estrela |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academico Viseu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Casa Pia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Estoril | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Estrela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Alverca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Arouca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Famalicao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Porto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gil Vicente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Maritimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Moreirense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nacional | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rio Ave | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Santa Clara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Braga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sporting | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Guimaraes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Estrela
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Al-Nassr Riyadh World Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 11/05 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 26/04 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 19/04 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 04/04 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 20/03 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 15/03 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
Sporting
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Nottm Forest Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Monaco Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 20/07 | Strasbourg Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 7-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 14/07 | Celtic Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | SCU Torreense Portugal Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 20 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 11/05 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 04/05 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
3-0 | 5-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 29/04 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | AVS Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Estrela vs Sporting?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sporting win (79%). Probabilities: Estrela 6%, draw 15%, Sporting 79%.
How many goals are expected in Estrela vs Sporting?
The model expects 3.21 goals (Estrela 0.62 · Sporting 2.59), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Sporting?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.