Prediction: Guimaraes vs Arouca
- Arouca3-2Guimaraes
- Guimaraes1-1Arouca
- Guimaraes2-2Arouca
- Arouca0-1Guimaraes
- Arouca1-3Guimaraes
- Guimaraes2-1Arouca
| Guimaraes | Draw | Arouca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Market | 50% | 27% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arouca (rating 1484 vs 1536).
- H2H favours Guimaraes: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Guimaraes | Arouca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.7 | 1.8 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 4.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Guimaraes 3–2–1 Arouca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Arouca | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Guimaraes |
| 30/08/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Guimaraes | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Arouca |
| 18/01/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Guimaraes | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Arouca |
| 12/08/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Arouca | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Guimaraes |
| 18/05/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Arouca | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Guimaraes |
| 15/01/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Guimaraes | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Arouca |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academico Viseu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Casa Pia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Estoril | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Estrela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Alverca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Arouca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Famalicao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Porto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gil Vicente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Maritimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Moreirense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nacional | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rio Ave | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Santa Clara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Braga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sporting | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Guimaraes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Guimaraes | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Tondela | 5-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Benfica | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Famalicao | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Arouca (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Guimaraes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Chaves Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 11/05 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 04/05 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-3 | 1-5 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 18/04 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 11/04 | AVS Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 03/04 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 21/03 | Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 14/03 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
Arouca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Famalicao Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 24/04 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 06/04 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 21/03 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 14/03 | Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Guimaraes vs Arouca?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Guimaraes win (50%). Probabilities: Guimaraes 50%, draw 27%, Arouca 23%.
How many goals are expected in Guimaraes vs Arouca?
The model expects 2.73 goals (Guimaraes 1.66 · Arouca 1.07), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Guimaraes vs Arouca?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.