Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 08/08, 16:30

Prediction: Maritimo vs Casa Pia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Maritimo1.2

Casa Pia1.2

1X2

36% 28% 36%

Maritimo Draw Casa Pia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Maritimo 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWLWWLLW

Casa Pia 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLWDDWLL

Head-to-head

Maritimo 0–1–2 Casa Pia (3 last)

Casa Pia2-0Maritimo
Maritimo1-2Casa Pia
Casa Pia0-0Maritimo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maritimo 1527 · Casa Pia 1454

	Maritimo	Draw	Casa Pia
Our model	35%	30%	35%
Market	37%	27%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maritimo (rating 1527 vs 1454).
H2H favours Casa Pia: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maritimo	Casa Pia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	0.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.1	2.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.40

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.61
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.71 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
01:23 +1’	2.50	3.40	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:23	2.66	3.31	2.66
18:02 +1’	2.61▼	3.31	2.71▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Maritimo 0–1–2 Casa Pia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/03/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	2-0 HT 1-0	Maritimo
03/10/22 Portugal Primeira Liga	Maritimo	1-2 HT 1-1	Casa Pia
23/07/22 Europe Friendlies	Casa Pia	0-0 HT 0-0	Maritimo

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Academico Viseu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Casa Pia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Estoril	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Estrela	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alverca	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Arouca	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Famalicao	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Porto	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gil Vicente	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Maritimo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Moreirense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rio Ave	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Santa Clara	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Benfica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sporting	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guimaraes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maritimo	Casa Pia
Leixoes	3-2 W	2-6 L
SCU Torreense	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Maritimo

WWDWLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Nacional Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
15/05	Chaves Portugal Segunda Liga	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
09/05	Penafiel Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
01/05	Leixoes Portugal Segunda Liga	2-1	3-2	2	8	W
26/04	Benfica B Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	2-1	2	8	W
18/04	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
12/04	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
04/04	Pacos Ferreira Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
21/03	UD Oliveirense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
15/03	UD Leiria Portugal Segunda Liga	2-1	2-1	2	9	W

Casa Pia

DLLLWDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Leixoes Europe Friendlies	2-3	2-6	1	3	L
01/08	Feirense Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-2	6	0	L
28/05	SCU Torreense Portugal Primeira Liga Play-Off	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
20/05	SCU Torreense Portugal Primeira Liga Play-Off	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
16/05	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	9	1	D
11/05	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
03/05	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	7	12	L
27/04	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	3	8	L
23/04	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
18/04	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maritimo vs Casa Pia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Maritimo win (36%). Probabilities: Maritimo 36%, draw 28%, Casa Pia 36%.

How many goals are expected in Maritimo vs Casa Pia?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Maritimo 1.2 · Casa Pia 1.2), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Casa Pia?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.