Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 07/08, 21:15
Prediction: Estoril vs Famalicao
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.35Total
Estoril1.04
Famalicao1.31
1X2
Estoril
Draw
Famalicao
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Estoril
0-4-6 (W-D-L)
Famalicao
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Estoril
2–4
Famalicao
(6 last)
- Estoril0-1Famalicao
- Famalicao4-0Estoril
- Estoril1-2Famalicao
- Famalicao3-0Estoril
- Estoril2-1Famalicao
- Estoril1-0Famalicao
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Estoril 1413 · Famalicao 1549
| Estoril | Draw | Famalicao | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 30% | 41% |
| Market | 30% | 27% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Famalicao (rating 1413 vs 1549).
- H2H favours Famalicao: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Estoril | Famalicao | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.6 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.1 | 0.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 0/67/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.6 | 3.3 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0 | 5.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Estoril 2–0–4 Famalicao
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Estoril | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Famalicao |
| 14/12/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Famalicao | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Estoril |
| 22/11/25 Portugal Cup | Estoril | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Famalicao |
| 12/04/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Famalicao | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Estoril |
| 01/12/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Estoril | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Famalicao |
| 28/04/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Estoril | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Famalicao |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academico Viseu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Casa Pia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Estoril | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Estrela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Alverca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Arouca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Famalicao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Porto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gil Vicente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Maritimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Moreirense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nacional | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rio Ave | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Santa Clara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Braga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sporting | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Guimaraes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Estoril | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Braga | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Moreirense | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| FC Porto | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Arouca | 2-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 4 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Famalicao (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Estoril
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | CF Os Belenenses Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 25/07 | SCU Torreense Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 16/05 | Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 20/04 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 12/04 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 06/04 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 22/03 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
Famalicao
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Como Elite Club Friendlies |
1-3 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 28/07 | Crystal Palace Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 25/07 | Tondela Club Friendly List |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/07 | Arouca Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 11/05 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 26/04 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 10/04 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 11 | D |
| 04/04 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Estoril vs Famalicao?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Famalicao win (42%). Probabilities: Estoril 29%, draw 29%, Famalicao 42%.
How many goals are expected in Estoril vs Famalicao?
The model expects 2.35 goals (Estoril 1.04 · Famalicao 1.31), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Famalicao?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.