Football · USA USL Championship · 02/08, 03:30

Prediction: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Tampa Bay Rowdies1.68

Louisville City FC1.21

1X2

48% 26% 27%

Tampa Bay Rowdies Draw Louisville City FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tampa Bay Rowdies 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWLWDW

Louisville City FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDWDDWWL

Head-to-head

Tampa Bay Rowdies 3–3 Louisville City FC (6 last)

Louisville City FC0-2Tampa Bay Rowdies
Louisville City FC2-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies1-2Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC2-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies3-2Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC2-3Tampa Bay Rowdies

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tampa Bay Rowdies 1560 · Louisville City FC 1525

	Tampa Bay Rowdies	Draw	Louisville City FC
Our model	47%	26%	26%
Market	48%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tampa Bay Rowdies	Louisville City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	1.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	0/90/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.8	3.8 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:13 +2’	1.85	3.50	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tampa Bay Rowdies 3–0–3 Louisville City FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Tampa Bay Rowdies
08/06/25 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	2-1 HT 2-1	Tampa Bay Rowdies
20/04/25 USA USL Championship	Tampa Bay Rowdies	1-2 HT 0-0	Louisville City FC
13/10/24 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	2-1 HT 0-0	Tampa Bay Rowdies
16/06/24 USA USL Championship	Tampa Bay Rowdies	3-2 HT 2-1	Louisville City FC
15/10/23 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	2-3 HT 1-3	Tampa Bay Rowdies

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	17	10	5	2	28	15	35
2	Charleston Battery	17	8	3	6	32	24	27
3	Detroit City FC	16	8	3	5	23	15	27
4	Louisville City FC	16	7	3	6	26	25	24
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	16	7	2	7	19	19	23
6	Rhode Island FC	15	6	4	5	25	18	22
7	Miami FC	18	5	6	7	22	29	21
8	Indy Eleven	15	6	3	6	18	17	21
9	Hartford Athletic	16	4	8	4	12	14	20
10	Loudoun United FC	16	2	9	5	19	29	15
11	Birmingham Legion FC	15	2	8	5	16	19	14
12	Brooklyn FC	16	3	4	9	17	27	13
13	Sporting JAX	18	1	5	12	23	46	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tampa Bay Rowdies	Louisville City FC
Miami FC	3-2 W	3-4 L
Lexington SC	1-4 L	4-2 W
Brooklyn FC	2-0 W	2-2 D
Hartford Athletic	0-1 L	1-0 W
Phoenix Rising FC	3-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tampa Bay Rowdies (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Tampa Bay Rowdies

WWWDLWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Miami FC USA USL Championship	2-1	3-2	3	10	W
19/07	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
12/07	FC Naples USA USL Cup	2-0	2-0	3	7	W
05/07	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-3	1-4	12	3	L
21/06	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
14/06	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	15	2	L
11/06	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	1-0	2-2	5	6	D
07/06	Sporting JAX USA USL Cup	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
31/05	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
24/05	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	3-0	3-0	3	0	W

Louisville City FC

WLLDWDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	1-3	7	4	L
12/07	Lexington SC USA USL Cup	2-2	4-2	3	6	W
05/07	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
20/06	Detroit City FC USA USL Cup	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
14/06	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	14	4	D
11/06	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	4	6	W
04/06	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
31/05	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
24/05	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-2	3-4	9	6	L
17/05	Union Omaha USA USL Cup	1-1	5-1	11	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tampa Bay Rowdies win (48%). Probabilities: Tampa Bay Rowdies 48%, draw 26%, Louisville City FC 27%.

How many goals are expected in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City FC?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.68 · Louisville City FC 1.21), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.