Football · USA USL Championship · 09/08, 04:00
Prediction: Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
Team pages: Orange County SC · Tampa Bay Rowdies
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.17Total
Orange County SC1.74
Tampa Bay Rowdies1.43
1X2
Orange County SC
Draw
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Orange County SC
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Tampa Bay Rowdies
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Orange County SC
1–1–2
Tampa Bay Rowdies
(4 last)
- Tampa Bay Rowdies2-0Orange County SC
- Orange County SC1-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Tampa Bay Rowdies3-1Orange County SC
- Tampa Bay Rowdies1-3Orange County SC
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Tampa Bay Rowdies: 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Orange County SC | Tampa Bay Rowdies | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.6 | 2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/80/0% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3 | 2.7 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 4.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Orange County SC 1–1–2 Tampa Bay Rowdies
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/24 USA USL Championship | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Orange County SC |
| 19/03/23 USA USL Championship | Orange County SC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Tampa Bay Rowdies |
| 28/08/22 USA USL Championship | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Orange County SC |
| 29/11/21 USA USL Championship | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 1-3 HT 0-3 | Orange County SC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 29 | 19 | 34 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 25 | 20 | 31 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 27 |
| 4 | Sacramento Republic | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 26 |
| 5 | Tulsa | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 26 |
| 6 | Lexington SC | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 22 | 25 |
| 7 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 24 | 25 |
| 8 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 27 | 22 |
| 9 | Phoenix Rising FC | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 24 | 25 | 22 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 27 | 22 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 28 | 21 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 19 | 30 | 15 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Orange County SC | Tampa Bay Rowdies |
|---|---|---|
| Hartford Athletic | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Miami FC | 4-2 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Orange County SC (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Orange County SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 12/07 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 09/07 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 05/07 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 25/06 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 07/06 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
Tampa Bay Rowdies
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
0-3 | 5-4 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 19/07 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 12/07 | FC Naples USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 05/07 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-3 | 1-4 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 15 | 2 | L |
| 11/06 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Sporting JAX USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Orange County SC win (44%). Probabilities: Orange County SC 44%, draw 25%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 31%.
How many goals are expected in Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
The model expects 3.17 goals (Orange County SC 1.74 · Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.43), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.