Football · USA USL Championship · 09/08, 04:00

Prediction: El Paso Locomotive FC vs Oakland Roots

Team pages: El Paso Locomotive FC · Oakland Roots

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

El Paso Locomotive FC1.67

Oakland Roots1.28

1X2

46% 26% 29%

El Paso Locomotive FC Draw Oakland Roots

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

El Paso Locomotive FC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDDLWLLWL

Oakland Roots 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWDDWLLLLL

Head-to-head

El Paso Locomotive FC 2–1–3 Oakland Roots (6 last)

Oakland Roots2-1El Paso Locomotive FC
El Paso Locomotive FC3-1Oakland Roots
Oakland Roots0-0El Paso Locomotive FC
Oakland Roots2-1El Paso Locomotive FC
El Paso Locomotive FC2-3Oakland Roots
Oakland Roots1-2El Paso Locomotive FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · El Paso Locomotive FC 1467 · Oakland Roots 1443

	El Paso Locomotive FC	Draw	Oakland Roots
Our model	45%	26%	28%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Oakland Roots: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	El Paso Locomotive FC	Oakland Roots
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.5	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	2.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.50

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:33 +1’	1.95	3.50	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · El Paso Locomotive FC 2–1–3 Oakland Roots

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 USA USL Championship	Oakland Roots	2-1 HT 1-1	El Paso Locomotive FC
01/10/25 USA USL Championship	El Paso Locomotive FC	3-1 HT 2-0	Oakland Roots
08/06/25 USA USL Championship	Oakland Roots	0-0 HT 0-0	El Paso Locomotive FC
20/06/24 USA USL Championship	Oakland Roots	2-1 HT 1-1	El Paso Locomotive FC
14/04/24 USA USL Championship	El Paso Locomotive FC	2-3 HT 2-1	Oakland Roots
15/10/23 USA USL Championship	Oakland Roots	1-2 HT 0-2	El Paso Locomotive FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Orange County SC	18	9	7	2	29	19	34
2	San Antonio FC	18	8	7	3	25	20	31
3	New Mexico United	15	8	3	4	20	15	27
4	Sacramento Republic	16	7	5	4	24	15	26
5	Tulsa	16	7	5	4	19	16	26
6	Lexington SC	17	7	4	6	27	22	25
7	Colorado Switchbacks FC	17	7	4	6	28	24	25
8	El Paso Locomotive FC	17	6	4	7	27	27	22
9	Phoenix Rising FC	18	5	7	6	24	25	22
10	Las Vegas Lights FC	17	6	4	7	25	27	22
11	Oakland Roots	18	5	6	7	25	28	21
12	Monterey Bay FC	18	4	3	11	19	30	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	El Paso Locomotive FC	Oakland Roots
New Mexico United	0-2 L	1-2 L
Las Vegas Lights FC	2-1 W	2-0 W
Phoenix Rising FC	1-1 D	4-3 W
Colorado Switchbacks FC	1-2 L	0-1 L
Lexington SC	1-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Oakland Roots (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

El Paso Locomotive FC

LLDDLWLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	13	1	L
26/07	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	8	6	W
19/07	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
12/07	New Mexico United USA USL Cup	0-0	0-2	4	1	L
05/07	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
21/06	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
14/06	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	0	5	D
11/06	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
07/06	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Cup	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
31/05	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-2	1-4	3	5	L

Oakland Roots

LWDDWLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
26/07	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	1-1	1-3	3	2	L
23/07	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
11/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL Cup	1-1	1-3	5	1	L
05/07	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-2	1-2	3	4	L
21/06	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	4-3	2	7	W
17/06	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
14/06	Miami FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
07/06	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Cup	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
31/05	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	3	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in El Paso Locomotive FC vs Oakland Roots?

According to our model, the most likely result is a El Paso Locomotive FC win (46%). Probabilities: El Paso Locomotive FC 46%, draw 26%, Oakland Roots 29%.

How many goals are expected in El Paso Locomotive FC vs Oakland Roots?

The model expects 2.95 goals (El Paso Locomotive FC 1.67 · Oakland Roots 1.28), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in El Paso Locomotive FC vs Oakland Roots?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.