Football · USA MLS · 17/08, 04:30

Prediction: Seattle Sounders vs Vancouver Whitecaps

Team pages: Seattle Sounders · Vancouver Whitecaps

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Seattle Sounders1.28

Vancouver Whitecaps1.83

1X2

26% 25% 49%

Seattle Sounders Draw Vancouver Whitecaps

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Seattle Sounders 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLWL

Vancouver Whitecaps 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDLDDLLD

Head-to-head

Seattle Sounders 3–2–1 Vancouver Whitecaps (6 last)

Seattle Sounders2-1Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps0-3Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders2-2Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps3-0Seattle Sounders
Vancouver Whitecaps0-3Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders1-1Vancouver Whitecaps

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Seattle Sounders 1440 · Vancouver Whitecaps 1478

	Seattle Sounders	Draw	Vancouver Whitecaps
Our model	26%	25%	49%
Market	26%	24%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Seattle Sounders: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Seattle Sounders	Vancouver Whitecaps
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.9	2.2 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.90

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 07:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.67
X	3.80 → 3.90▲	Bet365 3.90
2	2.00 → 1.90▼	Pinn 1.94 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.1% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:40 +4’	3.30	3.80	2.00
04:41 +1’	3.60▲	3.90▲	1.90▼
05:36 +1’	3.30▼	3.80▼	2.00▲
07:33 +1’	3.60▲	3.90▲	1.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:45	3.63	3.78	1.95
04:17 +1’	3.67▲	3.79▲	1.94▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Seattle Sounders 3–2–1 Vancouver Whitecaps

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/03/26 CONCACAF Champions Cup	Seattle Sounders	2-1 HT 0-1	Vancouver Whitecaps
13/03/26 CONCACAF Champions Cup	Vancouver Whitecaps	0-3 HT 0-1	Seattle Sounders
28/09/25 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	2-2 HT 0-0	Vancouver Whitecaps
09/06/25 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	3-0 HT 1-0	Seattle Sounders
03/10/24 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	0-3 HT 0-1	Seattle Sounders
19/05/24 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	1-1 HT 1-0	Vancouver Whitecaps

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	38	17	34
2	Los Angeles FC	19	10	4	5	35	19	34
3	San Jose Earthquakes	18	10	3	5	37	24	33
4	Houston Dynamo	18	10	2	6	27	24	32
5	Real Salt Lake	17	8	3	6	29	25	27
6	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	32	25	27
7	St. Louis City SC	18	7	5	6	24	24	26
8	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	33	33	24
9	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	20	22	24
10	Minnesota United	18	6	6	6	20	25	24
11	Colorado Rapids	18	7	1	10	27	25	22
12	LA Galaxy	19	5	7	7	24	29	22
13	San Diego FC	18	5	6	7	32	29	21
14	Austin FC	18	4	5	9	22	36	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	18	4	2	12	18	46	14

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Seattle Sounders

WLLLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	Chivas Guadalajara Leagues Cup	1-0	1-2	5	1	L
09/08	Queretaro Leagues Cup	2-0	3-0	2	1	W
06/08	Toluca Leagues Cup	0-1	0-3	1	0	L
02/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
26/07	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	0-1	1	1	L
23/07	Austin FC USA MLS	1-1	1-3	4	5	L
17/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-1	1-5	2	2	L
25/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
17/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
14/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	3-2	9	2	W

Vancouver Whitecaps

LWWDLDDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	Tigres UANL Leagues Cup	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
08/08	Juarez FC Leagues Cup	1-1	1-3	8	4	L
05/08	Atlante Leagues Cup	0-1	0-1	8	1	L
02/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	11	2	D
26/07	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
23/07	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-3	3-4	3	6	L
14/07	Cavalry FC Canada Championships	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
09/07	Cavalry FC Canada Championships	1-1	4-1	7	4	W
24/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	2-0	4-2	4	6	W
17/05	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-1	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Seattle Sounders vs Vancouver Whitecaps?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Vancouver Whitecaps win (49%). Probabilities: Seattle Sounders 26%, draw 25%, Vancouver Whitecaps 49%.

How many goals are expected in Seattle Sounders vs Vancouver Whitecaps?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Seattle Sounders 1.28 · Vancouver Whitecaps 1.83), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Seattle Sounders vs Vancouver Whitecaps?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.