Prediction: AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia
- Apoel Nicosia1-0AEK Larnaca
- AEK Larnaca1-0Apoel Nicosia
- Apoel Nicosia1-2AEK Larnaca
- AEK Larnaca1-1Apoel Nicosia
- AEK Larnaca3-0Apoel Nicosia
- Apoel Nicosia0-1AEK Larnaca
| AEK Larnaca | Draw | Apoel Nicosia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AEK Larnaca (rating 1526 vs 1450).
- H2H favours AEK Larnaca: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AEK Larnaca | Apoel Nicosia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.5 | 2 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.2 | 4.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AEK Larnaca 4–1–1 Apoel Nicosia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Cyprus Division 1 | Apoel Nicosia | 1-0 HT 0-0 | AEK Larnaca |
| 22/03/26 Cyprus Division 1 | AEK Larnaca | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Apoel Nicosia |
| 08/02/26 Cyprus Division 1 | Apoel Nicosia | 1-2 HT 1-1 | AEK Larnaca |
| 27/10/25 Cyprus Division 1 | AEK Larnaca | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Apoel Nicosia |
| 04/05/25 Cyprus Division 1 | AEK Larnaca | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Apoel Nicosia |
| 02/04/25 Cyprus Division 1 | Apoel Nicosia | 0-1 HT 0-1 | AEK Larnaca |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AEK Larnaca | Apoel Nicosia |
|---|---|---|
| Aris Limassol | 4-3 W | 0-1 L |
| Pafos FC | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| Omonia Nicosia | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Apollon Limassol | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 0 L | 0 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: AEK Larnaca (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AEK Larnaca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05 | Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 4-3 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 10/05 | Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 06/05 | Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 03/05 | Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 14/04 | Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 13 | 2 | L |
| 05/04 | Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 22/03 | Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
Apoel Nicosia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05 | Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 06/05 | Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1 |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 14/04 | Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 05/04 | Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 22/03 | AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a AEK Larnaca win (47%). Probabilities: AEK Larnaca 47%, draw 27%, Apoel Nicosia 26%.
How many goals are expected in AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia?
The model expects 2.72 goals (AEK Larnaca 1.59 · Apoel Nicosia 1.13), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.