Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 06/08, 00:00

Prediction: Nacional Potosi vs The Strongest

Team pages: Nacional Potosi · The Strongest

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Nacional Potosi1.42

The Strongest1.26

1X2

40% 27% 33%

Nacional Potosi Draw The Strongest

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Nacional Potosi 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDLWDLWL

The Strongest 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDWDWDDD

Head-to-head

Nacional Potosi 3–3 The Strongest (6 last)

The Strongest5-1Nacional Potosi
Nacional Potosi2-0The Strongest
Nacional Potosi1-0The Strongest
The Strongest1-2Nacional Potosi
Nacional Potosi0-2The Strongest
The Strongest2-0Nacional Potosi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nacional Potosi 1473 · The Strongest 1543

	Nacional Potosi	Draw	The Strongest
Our model	40%	28%	32%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours The Strongest (rating 1473 vs 1543).
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nacional Potosi	The Strongest
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	1.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.2	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.7	5.1 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.60

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.40▲	Bet365 2.40
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.75 → 2.60▼	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:36 +10’	2.25	3.60	2.75
22:36 +2’	2.40▲	3.60	2.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional Potosi 3–0–3 The Strongest

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/03/26 America Friendlies	The Strongest	5-1 HT 1-0	Nacional Potosi
01/03/26 America Friendlies	Nacional Potosi	2-0 HT 1-0	The Strongest
18/12/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Nacional Potosi	1-0 HT 0-0	The Strongest
17/12/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	The Strongest	1-2 HT 1-2	Nacional Potosi
09/08/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Nacional Potosi	0-2 HT 0-0	The Strongest
06/04/25 Bolivia Primera Division	The Strongest	2-0 HT 2-0	Nacional Potosi

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Always Ready	12	9	2	1	28	6	29
2	The Strongest	12	6	6	0	17	10	24
3	Bolivar	12	6	3	3	26	12	21
4	Club Aurora	12	5	6	1	20	14	21
5	Real Potosi	12	4	5	3	17	10	17
6	Blooming	12	4	5	3	17	14	17
7	Oriente Petrolero	12	5	2	5	16	16	17
8	Nacional Potosi	12	4	3	5	17	16	15
9	Independiente Petrolero	12	4	3	5	18	19	15
10	Guabira	12	4	3	5	19	26	15
11	Real Oruro	12	4	2	6	22	30	14
12	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	12	4	1	7	20	27	13
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	12	4	1	7	15	23	13
14	Universitario De Vinto	12	3	2	7	17	23	11
15	GV San Jose	12	2	5	5	12	18	11
16	Real Tomayapo	12	2	3	7	9	26	9

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nacional Potosi	The Strongest
Oriente Petrolero	0-1 L	2-1 W
Real Tomayapo	4-1 W	0-0 D
Real Oruro	1-4 L	3-2 W
Real Potosi	1-1 D	0-0 D
Club Aurora	2-0 W	1-1 D
Bolivar	1-1 D	1-1 D
Always Ready	1-3 L	1-0 W
GV San Jose	1-1 D	0-0 D
Blooming	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 4 L	3 W 6 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: The Strongest (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nacional Potosi

LDLDLWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
27/07	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	3-1	4-1	4	3	W
21/07	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	1-4	4	4	L
12/07	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
10/07	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
18/05	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-2	0	10	L
14/05	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
02/05	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-3	8	1	L
25/04	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
23/04	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	1-2	2	9	L

The Strongest

DWWDWDWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
26/07	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
19/07	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
16/07	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-1	8	7	W
12/07	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
14/05	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
10/05	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	7	9	D
03/05	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	3-1	7	2	W
26/04	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	1-2	3-2	6	5	W
24/04	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	2	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nacional Potosi vs The Strongest?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional Potosi win (40%). Probabilities: Nacional Potosi 40%, draw 27%, The Strongest 33%.

How many goals are expected in Nacional Potosi vs The Strongest?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Nacional Potosi 1.42 · The Strongest 1.26), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Nacional Potosi vs The Strongest?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.