Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 05/08, 00:00

Prediction: Independiente Petrolero vs Club Aurora

Team pages: Independiente Petrolero · Club Aurora

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Independiente Petrolero1.57

Club Aurora1.67

1X2

35% 26% 39%

Independiente Petrolero Draw Club Aurora

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente Petrolero 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LDWLLLLLLW

Club Aurora 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDWWLDWD

Head-to-head

Independiente Petrolero 3–3 Club Aurora (6 last)

Club Aurora2-3Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero2-4Club Aurora
Club Aurora2-0Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero2-1Club Aurora
Club Aurora2-3Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero0-1Club Aurora

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente Petrolero 1443 · Club Aurora 1533

	Independiente Petrolero	Draw	Club Aurora
Our model	35%	25%	39%
Market	35%	26%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Aurora (rating 1443 vs 1533).
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente Petrolero	Club Aurora
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.6	1.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.5	5.5 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.50

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:19 +9’	2.63	3.50	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Petrolero 3–0–3 Club Aurora

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/11/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Club Aurora	2-3 HT 1-0	Independiente Petrolero
27/05/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Independiente Petrolero	2-4 HT 0-2	Club Aurora
31/10/24 Bolivia Clausura	Club Aurora	2-0 HT 0-0	Independiente Petrolero
21/07/24 Bolivia Clausura	Independiente Petrolero	2-1 HT 0-0	Club Aurora
19/04/24 Bolivia Apertura	Club Aurora	2-3 HT 1-1	Independiente Petrolero
16/04/24 Bolivia Apertura	Independiente Petrolero	0-1 HT 0-0	Club Aurora

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Always Ready	11	8	2	1	27	6	26
2	The Strongest	12	6	6	0	17	10	24
3	Bolivar	11	6	3	2	26	11	21
4	Club Aurora	12	5	6	1	20	14	21
5	Blooming	12	4	5	3	17	14	17
6	Real Potosi	11	4	4	3	17	10	16
7	Nacional Potosi	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
8	Independiente Petrolero	12	4	3	5	18	19	15
9	Guabira	12	4	3	5	19	26	15
10	Oriente Petrolero	11	4	2	5	15	16	14
11	Real Oruro	12	4	2	6	22	30	14
12	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	12	4	1	7	20	27	13
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	12	4	1	7	15	23	13
14	Universitario De Vinto	12	3	2	7	17	23	11
15	GV San Jose	11	2	4	5	12	18	10
16	Real Tomayapo	12	2	3	7	9	26	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente Petrolero	Club Aurora
Real Oruro	3-0 W	1-1 D
Oriente Petrolero	1-2 L	2-2 D
Academia de Balompie Boliviano	1-3 L	3-2 W
Real Tomayapo	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Club Aurora (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Independiente Petrolero

LDWLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	3-0	2	6	W
26/07	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-2	9	5	L
22/07	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
16/07	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-3	2	9	L
13/07	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
28/05	Racing Club Copa Sudamericana	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
21/05	Botafogo Copa Sudamericana	0-1	0-3	1	3	L
14/05	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	3-1	5	4	W
10/05	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
06/05	Caracas Copa Sudamericana	0-2	2-3	4	3	L

Club Aurora

DWWDWWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
25/07	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	3-2	3	10	W
19/07	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-2	11	5	D
10/07	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
02/06	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
16/05	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
13/05	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
02/05	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	4-2	4	7	W
28/04	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	3-1	3	7	W
22/04	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	0	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente Petrolero vs Club Aurora?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Club Aurora win (39%). Probabilities: Independiente Petrolero 35%, draw 26%, Club Aurora 39%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente Petrolero vs Club Aurora?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Independiente Petrolero 1.57 · Club Aurora 1.67), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente Petrolero vs Club Aurora?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.