Football · Finland Kolmonen · 08/09, 18:30

Prediction: FC Metso vs JPS

Team pages: FC Metso · JPS

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.62Total

FC Metso1.86

JPS2.76

1X2

25% 18% 57%

FC Metso Draw JPS

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

1-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Metso 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLWWWL

JPS 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDDWWWDW

Head-to-head

FC Metso 0–1 JPS (1 last)

JPS5-0FC Metso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Metso 1531 · JPS 1601

	FC Metso	Draw	JPS
Our model	25%	19%	56%
Market	25%	18%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 4.62 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JPS (rating 1531 vs 1601).
High corners: 14 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Metso	JPS
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 2.3	3.7 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.4	1.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	57/14/29%	43/57/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.4	2.8 / 8.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	1.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X5.00

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.93

2 (-1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.77

Under 4.51.93

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 4.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.40 ★
2	1.45 → 1.57▲	Pinn 1.57

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:28 +8’	4.33	5.00	1.45
18:27	3.50▼	5.00	1.57▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:33 +3’	4.88	4.66	1.44
18:24 +3’	3.42▼	5.40▲	1.57▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Metso 0–0–1 JPS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	JPS	5-0	FC Metso

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JPS	16	11	5	0	56	13	38
2	FC Metso	16	9	3	4	47	33	30
3	FCJ Blackbird	17	8	5	4	46	31	29
4	KeuPa	16	7	6	3	34	29	27
5	FC Vaajakoski II	18	5	2	11	28	60	17
6	JJK/2	15	5	1	9	25	47	16
7	Savon Pallo	17	4	3	10	33	41	15
8	Komeetat	17	3	3	11	22	37	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Metso	JPS
KeuPa	3-4 L	1-1 D
JJK/2	4-0 W	8-0 W
FCJ Blackbird	4-1 W	1-1 D
Komeetat	4-2 W	6-3 W
Savon Pallo	2-8 L	2-1 W
FC Vaajakoski II	7-3 W	8-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: JPS (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Metso

WDWLWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	KeuPa Finland Kolmonen	–	3-4	–	–	L
26/08	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	6	2	W
19/08	FCJ Blackbird Finland Kolmonen	4-0	4-1	4	6	W
14/08	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	4-0	4-2	4	5	W
07/08	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	–	2-8	–	–	L
31/07	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	7-3	2	0	W
19/07	KeuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
24/06	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-2	6	3	W
16/06	FCJ Blackbird Finland Kolmonen	–	2-2	–	–	D
12/06	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	13	3	W

JPS

WWWDDWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	–	6-3	–	–	W
28/08	KeuPa Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	10	2	D
21/08	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
12/08	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	3-0	8-0	8	0	W
05/08	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	–	8-0	–	–	W
29/07	FCJ Blackbird Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
17/07	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	12	4	D
24/06	KeuPa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	8	0	W
17/06	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
10/06	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	11	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Metso vs JPS?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JPS win (57%). Probabilities: FC Metso 25%, draw 18%, JPS 57%.

How many goals are expected in FC Metso vs JPS?

The model expects 4.62 goals (FC Metso 1.86 · JPS 2.76), with a 51% chance of over 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Metso vs JPS?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.