Football · Finland Kolmonen · 17/09, 19:15

Prediction: HooGee vs ESPA

Team pages: HooGee · ESPA

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.09Total

HooGee1.2

ESPA2.89

1X2

13% 16% 72%

HooGee Draw ESPA

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

HooGee 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWLWD

ESPA 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWDDLL

Head-to-head

HooGee 0–3 ESPA (3 last)

ESPA3-0HooGee
ESPA1-0HooGee
HooGee2-3ESPA

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HooGee 1435 · ESPA 1525

	HooGee	Draw	ESPA
Our model	12%	16%	71%
Market	13%	16%	72%

Estimated total (ours) 4.09 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ESPA (rating 1435 vs 1525).
H2H favours ESPA: 3-0-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HooGee	ESPA
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 3	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.3	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.3	2.8 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

17.00

X5.75

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.85

2 (-2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.80

Under 42.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
X	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
2	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
03:46 +8’	7.00	5.75	1.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HooGee 0–0–3 ESPA

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	ESPA	3-0 HT 3-0	HooGee
23/08/24 Finland Kolmonen	ESPA	1-0 HT 0-0	HooGee
16/05/24 Finland Kolmonen	HooGee	2-3 HT 0-1	ESPA

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	19	13	4	2	65	26	43
2	ESPA	19	12	3	4	43	21	39
3	LePa	19	11	3	5	38	30	36
4	Poxyt	19	9	2	8	41	40	29
5	Gilla FC	19	8	3	8	46	38	27
6	LOPA	19	8	3	8	31	32	27
7	NuPS	19	7	5	7	30	29	26
8	GrIFK Reservi	19	8	2	9	34	38	26
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	19	5	3	11	27	47	18
10	MPS	19	4	5	10	21	35	17
11	HooGee	19	5	2	12	35	51	17
12	EPS Reservi	19	4	5	10	27	51	17

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HooGee	ESPA
MPS	3-3 D	2-2 D
LoPa	3-1 W	2-0 W
GrIFK Reservi	0-2 L	2-4 L
EPS Reservi	2-0 W	1-3 L
LePa	4-5 L	2-0 W
PPJ/Ruoholahti	2-3 L	1-0 W
NuPS	3-4 L	2-0 W
Poxyt	1-2 L	0-3 L
Gilla FC	3-6 L	4-1 W
EIF Academy	2-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 7 L	5 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: ESPA (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HooGee

LLLLLLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-3	14	2	D
03/09	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-1	8	4	W
30/08	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
20/08	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
13/08	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-2	4-5	3	3	L
06/08	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
31/07	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-4	1	4	L
23/07	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
01/07	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	2-3	3-6	7	1	L
25/06	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-4	4	1	L

ESPA

LWWWWWDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	9	4	L
04/09	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
28/08	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
21/08	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
12/08	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	3-0	4-1	3	4	W
07/08	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
31/07	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
27/07	LOPA Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
03/07	LePa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
28/06	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-4	9	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HooGee vs ESPA?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ESPA win (72%). Probabilities: HooGee 13%, draw 16%, ESPA 72%.

How many goals are expected in HooGee vs ESPA?

The model expects 4.09 goals (HooGee 1.2 · ESPA 2.89), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in HooGee vs ESPA?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.