Football · Finland Kolmonen · 18/09, 17:00

Prediction: ACF vs KaaPo

Team pages: ACF · KaaPo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.91Total

ACF1.57

KaaPo2.34

1X2

25% 21% 54%

ACF Draw KaaPo

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

ACF 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DWLDLWLLLL

KaaPo 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLWLLL

Head-to-head

ACF 0–1 KaaPo (1 last)

KaaPo5-3ACF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ACF 1430 · KaaPo 1429

	ACF	Draw	KaaPo
Our model	25%	21%	54%
Market	25%	21%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.91 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ACF	KaaPo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.3	1.1 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/33/56%	57/14/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 2.7	2.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.60

X4.33

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:57 +3’	3.60	4.33	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · ACF 0–0–1 KaaPo

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
12/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	KaaPo	5-3 HT 2-0	ACF

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EuPa	19	13	4	2	39	13	43
2	IFK Mariehamn II	19	12	3	4	44	20	39
3	PIF Parainen	19	10	4	5	35	23	34
4	Peimari United	19	8	8	3	33	21	32
5	LTU	19	9	3	7	27	23	30
6	SAPA/2	20	9	3	8	31	31	30
7	MaPS	19	9	2	8	35	29	29
8	VG-62	18	7	0	11	24	28	21
9	KaaPo	19	7	0	12	31	42	21
10	PiPS	19	5	2	12	20	40	17
11	JyTy	19	4	4	11	21	45	16
12	ACF	19	2	5	12	17	42	11

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ACF	KaaPo
PIF Parainen	2-4 L	2-4 L
MaPS	0-2 L	2-1 W
SAPA/2	2-3 L	0-2 L
EuPa	0-2 L	1-4 L
PiPS	2-1 W	1-3 L
LTU	1-4 L	0-3 L
IFK Mariehamn II	2-2 D	2-3 L
VG-62	0-3 L	2-0 W
JyTy	2-0 W	1-2 L
Peimari United	2-2 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 6 L	2 W 0 D 8 L

Better against common opponents: ACF (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ACF

DWLDLWLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	–	2-4	–	–	L
04/09	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
25/08	SAPA/2 Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-3	1	1	L
21/08	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
14/08	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	6	0	W
07/08	LTU Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-4	0	6	L
02/08	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-2	2	5	D
23/07	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	2	2	L
25/06	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
17/06	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	6	3	D

KaaPo

WLLLLLWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-3	3	3	L
04/09	LTU Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
29/08	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	2-3	6	7	L
21/08	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
14/08	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
06/08	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-2	2	7	L
01/08	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	–	1-4	–	–	L
22/07	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-4	1	3	L
23/06	SAPA/2 Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
17/06	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	10	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ACF vs KaaPo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KaaPo win (54%). Probabilities: ACF 25%, draw 21%, KaaPo 54%.

How many goals are expected in ACF vs KaaPo?

The model expects 3.91 goals (ACF 1.57 · KaaPo 2.34), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in ACF vs KaaPo?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.