Football · Uruguay Segunda · 02/08, 17:00

Prediction: CA Atenas vs Colon FC

Team pages: CA Atenas · Colon FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

CA Atenas1.24

Colon FC1.19

1X2

36% 30% 34%

CA Atenas Draw Colon FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CA Atenas 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWWDLL

Colon FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWDWDWWL

Head-to-head

CA Atenas 1–3–1 Colon FC (5 last)

CA Atenas1-1Colon FC
Colon FC0-1CA Atenas
Colon FC1-1CA Atenas
CA Atenas0-0Colon FC
Colon FC2-1CA Atenas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Atenas 1515 · Colon FC 1501

	CA Atenas	Draw	Colon FC
Our model	36%	30%	34%
Market	36%	30%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Atenas	Colon FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 2.9	2.5 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.4	5.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.00

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
21:53 +2’	2.45	3.00	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Atenas 1–3–1 Colon FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/25 Uruguay Segunda	CA Atenas	1-1 HT 1-0	Colon FC
09/06/25 Uruguay Segunda	Colon FC	0-1 HT 0-1	CA Atenas
18/08/24 Uruguay Segunda	Colon FC	1-1 HT 1-0	CA Atenas
19/05/24 Uruguay Segunda	CA Atenas	0-0	Colon FC
13/04/24 Uruguay Segunda	Colon FC	2-1 HT 1-1	CA Atenas

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Oriental	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
3	Colon FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
4	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Miramar Misiones	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
6	Paysandu FC	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
7	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	6	13	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Atenas	Colon FC
Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0-1 L	1-1 D
Rentistas	1-3 L	2-0 W
Miramar Misiones	1-1 D	1-3 L
Tacuarembo	2-0 W	0-2 L
Plaza Colonia	2-1 W	0-1 L
CA River Plate	2-0 W	2-1 W
Paysandu FC	3-2 W	2-3 L
Huracan DPA	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: CA Atenas (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Atenas

LWWLWWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
12/07	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	1-2	1-3	6	11	L
06/07	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
27/06	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
21/06	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
14/06	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	2-0	4-0	0	2	W
07/06	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-2	2	6	L
31/05	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	2	8	W
23/05	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-1	3-2	3	6	W
17/05	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	1	4	L

Colon FC

LLLWDWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-1	2-3	7	3	L
11/07	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	2-0	2-0	3	7	W
06/07	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
28/06	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
20/06	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
13/06	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
07/06	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	5	10	W
31/05	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-2	1-3	5	8	L
24/05	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-2	0-2	5	6	L
16/05	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-1	7	11	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Atenas vs Colon FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Atenas win (36%). Probabilities: CA Atenas 36%, draw 30%, Colon FC 34%.

How many goals are expected in CA Atenas vs Colon FC?

The model expects 2.43 goals (CA Atenas 1.24 · Colon FC 1.19), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Atenas vs Colon FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.