Football · Uruguay Segunda · 02/08, 20:00

Prediction: Cerrito vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Team pages: Cerrito · Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Cerrito1.34

Atletico Fenix Montevideo1.34

1X2

36% 29% 36%

Cerrito Draw Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cerrito 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLWDWD

Atletico Fenix Montevideo 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDDWDDLWLW

Head-to-head

Cerrito 0–1–5 Atletico Fenix Montevideo (6 last)

Atletico Fenix Montevideo4-1Cerrito
Cerrito2-2Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo3-2Cerrito
Cerrito0-2Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo2-0Cerrito
Cerrito2-4Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cerrito 1523 · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1509

	Cerrito	Draw	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Our model	36%	28%	36%
Market	36%	29%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Fenix Montevideo: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 12.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cerrito	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.5	2.2 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7.2 / 0.2	5.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.10

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:53 +6’	2.50	3.10	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerrito 0–1–5 Atletico Fenix Montevideo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	4-1 HT 3-0	Cerrito
22/09/25 Uruguay Segunda	Cerrito	2-2 HT 0-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
29/06/25 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	3-2 HT 0-2	Cerrito
15/09/22 Uruguay Clausura	Cerrito	0-2 HT 0-2	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
10/04/22 Uruguay Apertura	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2-0 HT 1-0	Cerrito
17/10/21 Uruguay Clausura	Cerrito	2-4 HT 2-1	Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	6	3	2	1	13	7	11
2	Huracan DPA	6	2	4	0	9	6	10
3	Uruguay Montevideo	6	2	3	1	7	5	9
4	Cerrito	6	2	3	1	8	8	9
5	La Luz	6	1	4	1	5	6	7
6	CA Atenas	6	1	1	4	5	11	4
7	Tacuarembo	6	0	3	3	5	9	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cerrito	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Rentistas	0-0 D	1-1 D
Miramar Misiones	1-0 W	1-1 D
Tacuarembo	0-0 D	1-2 L
CA River Plate	4-6 L	3-1 W
CA Atenas	2-1 W	1-0 W
Paysandu FC	1-0 W	0-1 L
Huracan DPA	2-0 W	2-0 W
Uruguay Montevideo	2-2 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Cerrito (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cerrito

DWWWLLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
12/07	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
05/07	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
28/06	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
21/06	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-2	8	11	L
14/06	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	3-5	4-6	7	8	L
07/06	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
30/05	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
24/05	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	2-0	2-0	2	7	W
16/05	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-2	5	9	D

Atletico Fenix Montevideo

LDDWDDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
14/07	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
05/07	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
27/06	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	2-1	2-3	9	11	L
20/06	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	2-2	8	3	D
13/06	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
06/06	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-1	3-1	3	8	W
31/05	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
25/05	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	7	7	D
17/05	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-2	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cerrito vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cerrito win (36%). Probabilities: Cerrito 36%, draw 29%, Atletico Fenix Montevideo 36%.

How many goals are expected in Cerrito vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Cerrito 1.34 · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1.34), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cerrito vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.