Football · Uruguay Segunda · 01/08, 21:00

Prediction: Tacuarembo vs CA River Plate

Team pages: Tacuarembo · CA River Plate

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Tacuarembo1.13

CA River Plate1.25

1X2

32% 29% 38%

Tacuarembo Draw CA River Plate

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tacuarembo 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWLDLL

CA River Plate 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWLDWWD

Head-to-head

Tacuarembo 0–1–1 CA River Plate (2 last)

Tacuarembo1-3CA River Plate
CA River Plate2-2Tacuarembo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tacuarembo 1476 · CA River Plate 1522

	Tacuarembo	Draw	CA River Plate
Our model	32%	30%	38%
Market	33%	29%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA River Plate (rating 1476 vs 1522).
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tacuarembo	CA River Plate
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.1	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	1.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.8	3.6 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.10

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:41 +1’	2.70	3.10	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tacuarembo 0–1–1 CA River Plate

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/15 Uruguay Clausura	Tacuarembo	1-3 HT 1-1	CA River Plate
19/10/14 Uruguay Apertura	CA River Plate	2-2 HT 2-0	Tacuarembo

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Oriental	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
3	Colon FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
4	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Miramar Misiones	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
6	Paysandu FC	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
7	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	6	13	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tacuarembo	CA River Plate
Plaza Colonia	0-2 L	3-2 W
La Luz	0-2 L	0-0 D
Cerrito	0-0 D	6-4 W
CA Atenas	0-2 L	0-2 L
Paysandu FC	1-0 W	1-0 W
Uruguay Montevideo	1-0 W	1-1 D
Club Oriental	0-2 L	2-1 W
Colon FC	2-0 W	1-2 L
Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CA River Plate (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tacuarembo

WWLWLWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-2	8	5	L
13/07	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-2	0-2	2	6	L
05/07	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
27/06	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-2	0-2	3	6	L
20/06	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	4	14	W
13/06	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
07/06	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
01/06	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
24/05	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
17/05	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	2-1	5	6	W

CA River Plate

WWLLWLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
11/07	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
05/07	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
28/06	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
20/06	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
14/06	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	5-3	6-4	4	8	W
06/06	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	1-1	1-3	9	8	L
31/05	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-2	8	8	L
23/05	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	2-1	2-1	5	4	W
16/05	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tacuarembo vs CA River Plate?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CA River Plate win (38%). Probabilities: Tacuarembo 32%, draw 29%, CA River Plate 38%.

How many goals are expected in Tacuarembo vs CA River Plate?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Tacuarembo 1.13 · CA River Plate 1.25), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tacuarembo vs CA River Plate?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.