Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 26/07, 17:00
Prediction: Atlanta United II vs New York City FC II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.9Total
Atlanta United II2.48
New York City FC II1.42
1X2
Atlanta United II
Draw
New York City FC II
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Atlanta United II
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
New York City FC II
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atlanta United II
1–2–2
New York City FC II
(5 last)
- Atlanta United II2-3New York City FC II
- New York City FC II2-2Atlanta United II
- Atlanta United II0-0New York City FC II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atlanta United II 1502 · New York City FC II 1546
| Atlanta United II | Draw | New York City FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.9 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New York City FC II (rating 1502 vs 1546).
- H2H favours New York City FC II: 2-2-1.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atlanta United II | New York City FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.9 | 2.1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.6 / 7.2 | 2.5 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.4 | 3.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlanta United II 1–2–2 New York City FC II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Atlanta United II | 2-3 HT 1-1 | New York City FC II |
| 06/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Atlanta United II |
| 04/05/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Atlanta United II | 0-0 HT 0-0 | New York City FC II |
| 26/06/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Atlanta United II | 4-2 HT 0-1 | New York City FC II |
| 10/04/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Atlanta United II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 47 | 27 | 40 |
| 2 | Columbus Crew II | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35 | 29 | 39 |
| 3 | New England Revolution II | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 20 | 35 |
| 4 | Orlando City II | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 40 | 33 | 35 |
| 5 | Chattanooga FC | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 30 | 34 |
| 6 | New York Red Bulls II | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 32 | 32 |
| 7 | Atlanta United II | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 28 | 30 |
| 8 | CT United | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 32 | 28 |
| 9 | New York City FC II | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 26 | 28 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire II | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 27 | 27 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 23 | 26 |
| 12 | Toronto FC II | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 36 | 25 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 35 | 25 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 32 | 21 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 18 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 17 | 34 | 14 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 17 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 45 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atlanta United II | New York City FC II |
|---|---|---|
| Crown Legacy | 3-3 D | 3-0 W |
| Columbus Crew II | 2-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Chattanooga FC | 4-4 D | 1-1 D |
| Philadelphia Union II | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: New York City FC II (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atlanta United II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 28/06 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-2 | 3-3 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 22/06 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 4-4 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 6-2 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 11/05 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
New York City FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 12/07 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 22/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 18/06 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 18/05 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atlanta United II vs New York City FC II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlanta United II win (60%). Probabilities: Atlanta United II 60%, draw 20%, New York City FC II 20%.
How many goals are expected in Atlanta United II vs New York City FC II?
The model expects 3.9 goals (Atlanta United II 2.48 · New York City FC II 1.42), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Atlanta United II vs New York City FC II?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.