Football · El Salvador Apertura · 21/09, 01:30

Prediction: CD Luis Angel Firpo vs Atlético Balboa

Team pages: CD Luis Angel Firpo · Atlético Balboa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

CD Luis Angel Firpo1.82

Atlético Balboa0.71

1X2

64% 23% 14%

CD Luis Angel Firpo Draw Atlético Balboa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Luis Angel Firpo 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLDDWWDWLW

Atlético Balboa 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLDDWWLLLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Luis Angel Firpo 1528 · Atlético Balboa 1485

	CD Luis Angel Firpo	Draw	Atlético Balboa
Our model	63%	24%	13%
Market	64%	21%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Luis Angel Firpo (rating 1528 vs 1485).
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Luis Angel Firpo	Atlético Balboa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.6	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.4	1.1 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.6	5.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.20

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.93

2 (+1.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Pinn 1.43
X	4.10 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20
2	6.50 → 6.25▼	Pinn 6.64 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
04:23 +11’	1.40	4.10	6.50
10:56 +4’	1.40	4.20▲	6.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:04 +1’	1.41	4.21	6.84
09:28 +3’	1.51▲	3.87▼	5.78▼
09:59 +62’	1.43▼	4.13▲	6.64▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Internacional Santa Tecla	10	5	4	1	16	8	19
2	AD Isidro Metapan	10	6	1	3	15	10	19
3	CD FAS	9	5	2	2	16	9	17
4	Municipal Limeno	10	5	2	3	14	9	17
5	CD Luis Angel Firpo	8	4	2	2	13	6	14
6	Atlético Balboa	10	3	3	4	11	13	12
7	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	10	3	3	4	12	15	12
8	CD Aguila	10	2	5	3	15	14	11
9	CD INCA Aruba	11	3	2	6	8	20	11
10	Alianza FC	7	2	3	2	9	9	9
11	CD Cacahuatique	9	1	4	4	11	16	7
12	Fuerte San Francisco	10	1	3	6	6	17	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Luis Angel Firpo	Atlético Balboa
Internacional Santa Tecla	3-0 W	0-0 D
CD FAS	1-3 L	1-1 D
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	1-0 W	3-1 W
CD INCA Aruba	0-0 D	0-1 L
Municipal Limeno	2-0 W	0-2 L
Fuerte San Francisco	4-0 W	1-0 W
CD Aguila	1-1 D	4-2 W
Alianza FC	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CD Luis Angel Firpo (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Luis Angel Firpo

WLDDWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	3-0	3-0	6	5	W
31/08	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-3	1-3	12	5	L
24/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	0	1	W
17/08	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
09/08	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
30/07	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	2-0	4-0	6	2	W
26/07	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
21/12	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
14/12	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
07/12	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-1	3	12	W

Atlético Balboa

DLDDWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-1	3-1	4	5	W
09/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
06/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-2	2	8	L
30/08	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
23/08	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
15/08	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-2	4-2	1	8	W
10/08	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-1	0	3	D
02/08	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	9	8	D
28/07	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	2-2	2-4	3	5	L
25/07	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Luis Angel Firpo vs Atlético Balboa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Luis Angel Firpo win (64%). Probabilities: CD Luis Angel Firpo 64%, draw 23%, Atlético Balboa 14%.

How many goals are expected in CD Luis Angel Firpo vs Atlético Balboa?

The model expects 2.54 goals (CD Luis Angel Firpo 1.82 · Atlético Balboa 0.71), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Luis Angel Firpo vs Atlético Balboa?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.