Football · El Salvador Apertura · 27/09, 18:00

Prediction: Alianza FC vs CD INCA Aruba

Team pages: Alianza FC · CD INCA Aruba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Alianza FC1.91

CD INCA Aruba0.81

1X2

63% 23% 15%

Alianza FC Draw CD INCA Aruba

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza FC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

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CD INCA Aruba 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Alianza FC 1–0 CD INCA Aruba (1 last)

CD INCA Aruba1-3Alianza FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza FC 1515 · CD INCA Aruba 1462

	Alianza FC	Draw	CD INCA Aruba
Our model	62%	24%	14%
Market	63%	22%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza FC (rating 1515 vs 1462).
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza FC	CD INCA Aruba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	0.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.8	1.8 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:14 +33’	1.42	4.00	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza FC 1–0–0 CD INCA Aruba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 El Salvador Apertura	CD INCA Aruba	1-3 HT 0-1	Alianza FC

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD FAS	10	6	2	2	18	9	20
2	Internacional Santa Tecla	11	5	5	1	16	8	20
3	AD Isidro Metapan	11	6	2	3	15	10	20
4	CD Luis Angel Firpo	10	5	3	2	16	7	18
5	Municipal Limeno	11	5	2	4	16	12	17
6	CD Aguila	11	3	5	3	16	14	14
7	Alianza FC	9	3	4	2	14	13	13
8	Atlético Balboa	11	3	3	5	12	16	12
8	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	11	3	3	5	12	16	12
10	CD INCA Aruba	11	3	2	6	8	20	11
11	CD Cacahuatique	11	1	5	5	11	18	8
12	Fuerte San Francisco	11	1	4	6	8	19	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza FC	CD INCA Aruba
Fuerte San Francisco	2-2 D	2-1 W
Municipal Limeno	3-2 W	0-2 L
CD Aguila	2-2 D	1-3 L
Atlético Balboa	2-0 W	1-0 W
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	2-2 D	0-2 L
AD Isidro Metapan	0-2 L	1-0 W
CD Cacahuatique	0-0 D	1-1 D
Internacional Santa Tecla	0-2 L	1-4 L
CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 5 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza FC (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-2	4	7	D
20/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
06/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	5	9	D
30/08	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-0	11	4	W
26/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
23/08	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
16/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
09/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
26/07	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
21/12	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	9	5	D

CD INCA Aruba

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-1	6	9	W
12/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-3	3	0	L
09/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
06/09	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
29/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	0	4	D
22/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-4	4	1	L
17/08	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
08/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	2	10	L
03/08	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-2	0-4	3	2	L
30/07	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-2	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza FC vs CD INCA Aruba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza FC win (63%). Probabilities: Alianza FC 63%, draw 23%, CD INCA Aruba 15%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza FC vs CD INCA Aruba?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Alianza FC 1.91 · CD INCA Aruba 0.81), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC vs CD INCA Aruba?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.