Football · El Salvador Apertura · 05/10, 03:00

Prediction: CD FAS vs CD INCA Aruba

Team pages: CD FAS · CD INCA Aruba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

CD FAS2.25

CD INCA Aruba0.76

1X2

71% 19% 11%

CD FAS Draw CD INCA Aruba

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

CD FAS 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWDLWWWDWW

CD INCA Aruba 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLDWWLWD

Head-to-head

CD FAS 1–0 CD INCA Aruba (1 last)

CD INCA Aruba0-4CD FAS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD FAS 1567 · CD INCA Aruba 1475

	CD FAS	Draw	CD INCA Aruba
Our model	70%	19%	10%
Market	71%	18%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD FAS (rating 1567 vs 1475).
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD FAS	CD INCA Aruba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	0.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.4	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.00

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:32 +16’	1.25	5.00	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD FAS 1–0–0 CD INCA Aruba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/08/26 El Salvador Apertura	CD INCA Aruba	0-4 HT 0-2	CD FAS

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD FAS	11	7	2	2	21	10	23
2	AD Isidro Metapan	12	7	2	3	17	10	23
3	CD Luis Angel Firpo	11	6	3	2	18	7	21
4	Internacional Santa Tecla	13	5	6	2	18	11	21
5	Alianza FC	11	4	5	2	17	15	17
5	Municipal Limeno	12	5	2	5	17	15	17
7	CD Aguila	13	4	5	4	18	17	17
8	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	13	3	4	6	13	18	13
9	Atlético Balboa	13	3	4	6	13	19	13
10	CD INCA Aruba	12	3	3	6	9	21	12
11	CD Cacahuatique	13	2	5	6	13	20	11
12	Fuerte San Francisco	12	1	5	6	8	19	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD FAS	CD INCA Aruba
CD Cacahuatique	2-0 W	1-1 D
Internacional Santa Tecla	2-2 D	1-4 L
Fuerte San Francisco	1-0 W	2-1 W
CD Luis Angel Firpo	3-1 W	0-0 D
CD Aguila	1-0 W	1-3 L
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	1-2 L	0-2 L
Atlético Balboa	1-1 D	1-0 W
AD Isidro Metapan	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CD FAS (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD FAS

LWDLWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	0-0	3-1	–	–	W
19/09	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	0	5	W
17/09	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	2-1	2-2	2	6	D
05/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
31/08	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	3-0	3-1	9	5	W
23/08	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
17/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-2	9	5	L
10/08	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-1	8	3	D
03/08	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	2-0	4-0	5	2	W
31/07	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-2	0-2	2	8	L

CD INCA Aruba

LLDLDWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
19/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-1	6	9	W
12/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-3	3	0	L
09/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
06/09	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
29/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	0	4	D
22/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-4	4	1	L
17/08	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
08/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	2	10	L
03/08	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-2	0-4	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD FAS vs CD INCA Aruba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD FAS win (71%). Probabilities: CD FAS 71%, draw 19%, CD INCA Aruba 11%.

How many goals are expected in CD FAS vs CD INCA Aruba?

The model expects 3.02 goals (CD FAS 2.25 · CD INCA Aruba 0.76), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in CD FAS vs CD INCA Aruba?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.