Football · El Salvador Apertura · 05/10, 01:00

Prediction: Internacional Santa Tecla vs Fuerte San Francisco

Team pages: Internacional Santa Tecla · Fuerte San Francisco

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Internacional Santa Tecla1.81

Fuerte San Francisco0.76

1X2

62% 24% 15%

Internacional Santa Tecla Draw Fuerte San Francisco

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Internacional Santa Tecla 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWDDDL

Fuerte San Francisco 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLDDL

Head-to-head

Internacional Santa Tecla 2–3–0 Fuerte San Francisco (5 last)

Fuerte San Francisco2-2Internacional Santa Tecla
Fuerte San Francisco0-0Internacional Santa Tecla
Internacional Santa Tecla2-0Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco2-3Internacional Santa Tecla
Internacional Santa Tecla0-0Fuerte San Francisco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Internacional Santa Tecla 1543 · Fuerte San Francisco 1419

	Internacional Santa Tecla	Draw	Fuerte San Francisco
Our model	61%	25%	14%
Market	62%	23%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Internacional Santa Tecla (rating 1543 vs 1419).
H2H favours Internacional Santa Tecla: 2-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Internacional Santa Tecla	Fuerte San Francisco
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	0.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.4	2.2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.6	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.44

X3.90

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Pinn 1.53 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:44 +4’	1.44	3.90	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:54 +8’	1.53	3.79	5.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Internacional Santa Tecla 2–3–0 Fuerte San Francisco

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 El Salvador Apertura	Fuerte San Francisco	2-2 HT 2-1	Internacional Santa Tecla
18/03/26 El Salvador Clausura	Fuerte San Francisco	0-0 HT 0-0	Internacional Santa Tecla
22/01/26 El Salvador Clausura	Internacional Santa Tecla	2-0 HT 2-0	Fuerte San Francisco
24/09/25 El Salvador Clausura	Fuerte San Francisco	2-3 HT 1-1	Internacional Santa Tecla
24/07/25 El Salvador Clausura	Internacional Santa Tecla	0-0 HT 0-0	Fuerte San Francisco

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Luis Angel Firpo	12	7	3	2	21	7	24
2	CD FAS	11	7	2	2	21	10	23
3	AD Isidro Metapan	12	7	2	3	17	10	23
4	Internacional Santa Tecla	13	5	6	2	18	11	21
5	Alianza FC	11	4	5	2	17	15	17
6	CD Aguila	13	4	5	4	18	17	17
6	Municipal Limeno	13	5	2	6	18	17	17
8	CD INCA Aruba	13	4	3	6	11	22	15
9	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	13	3	4	6	13	18	13
10	Atlético Balboa	13	3	4	6	13	19	13
11	CD Cacahuatique	13	2	5	6	13	20	11
12	Fuerte San Francisco	13	1	5	7	8	22	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Internacional Santa Tecla	Fuerte San Francisco
CD Aguila	1-2 L	1-4 L
Atlético Balboa	1-1 D	0-1 L
AD Isidro Metapan	0-0 D	1-0 W
CD FAS	2-2 D	0-1 L
CD Cacahuatique	2-0 W	0-0 D
CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-3 L	0-3 L
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	3-0 W	0-0 D
CD INCA Aruba	4-1 W	1-2 L
Municipal Limeno	1-0 W	0-2 L
Alianza FC	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	5 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Internacional Santa Tecla (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Internacional Santa Tecla

WWWWLWDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
27/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-1	12	3	D
20/09	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
17/09	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-2	2-2	8	6	D
13/09	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
07/09	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-3	0-3	1	5	L
29/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-0	3-0	5	8	W
22/08	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	0-0	4-1	4	1	W
15/08	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	6	7	W
09/08	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	7	0	W

Fuerte San Francisco

DWLLLLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
27/09	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
24/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-2	4	7	D
19/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-2	4	9	L
13/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
05/09	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
30/08	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-4	2	6	L
23/08	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
15/08	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	8	0	W
09/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	5	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Internacional Santa Tecla vs Fuerte San Francisco?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Internacional Santa Tecla win (62%). Probabilities: Internacional Santa Tecla 62%, draw 24%, Fuerte San Francisco 15%.

How many goals are expected in Internacional Santa Tecla vs Fuerte San Francisco?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Internacional Santa Tecla 1.81 · Fuerte San Francisco 0.76), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Internacional Santa Tecla vs Fuerte San Francisco?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.