Football · El Salvador Apertura · 27/09, 01:00

Prediction: Internacional Santa Tecla vs Atlético Balboa

Team pages: Internacional Santa Tecla · Atlético Balboa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Internacional Santa Tecla1.74

Atlético Balboa0.96

1X2

55% 26% 20%

Internacional Santa Tecla Draw Atlético Balboa

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Internacional Santa Tecla 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWLWDD

Atlético Balboa 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDDWWLLLWL

Head-to-head

Internacional Santa Tecla 0–1–0 Atlético Balboa (1 last)

Atlético Balboa0-0Internacional Santa Tecla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Internacional Santa Tecla 1552 · Atlético Balboa 1474

	Internacional Santa Tecla	Draw	Atlético Balboa
Our model	55%	26%	19%
Market	55%	25%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Internacional Santa Tecla (rating 1552 vs 1474).
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Internacional Santa Tecla	Atlético Balboa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.8	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.2	1 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.7	5.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.62
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.67
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.93 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +5’	1.61	3.60	4.50
21:32 +7’	1.61	3.50▼	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:55 +53’	1.63	3.65	4.93
21:35 +4’	1.62▼	3.67▲	4.93

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Internacional Santa Tecla 0–1–0 Atlético Balboa

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 El Salvador Apertura	Atlético Balboa	0-0 HT 0-0	Internacional Santa Tecla

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD FAS	10	6	2	2	18	9	20
2	Internacional Santa Tecla	11	5	5	1	16	8	20
3	AD Isidro Metapan	11	6	2	3	15	10	20
4	CD Luis Angel Firpo	10	5	3	2	16	7	18
5	Municipal Limeno	11	5	2	4	16	12	17
6	CD Aguila	11	3	5	3	16	14	14
7	Alianza FC	9	3	4	2	14	13	13
8	Atlético Balboa	11	3	3	5	12	16	12
8	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	11	3	3	5	12	16	12
10	CD INCA Aruba	11	3	2	6	8	20	11
11	CD Cacahuatique	11	1	5	5	11	18	8
12	Fuerte San Francisco	11	1	4	6	8	19	7

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Internacional Santa Tecla	Atlético Balboa
AD Isidro Metapan	0-0 D	0-0 D
CD FAS	2-2 D	1-1 D
CD Cacahuatique	2-0 W	2-4 L
CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-3 L	1-3 L
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	3-0 W	3-1 W
CD INCA Aruba	4-1 W	0-1 L
Municipal Limeno	1-0 W	0-2 L
Alianza FC	2-0 W	0-2 L
Fuerte San Francisco	2-2 D	1-0 W
CD Aguila	0-0 D	4-2 W
Record vs common	5 W 4 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Internacional Santa Tecla (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Internacional Santa Tecla

DDWWWWLWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
17/09	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-2	2-2	8	6	D
13/09	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
07/09	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-3	0-3	1	5	L
29/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-0	3-0	5	8	W
22/08	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	0-0	4-1	4	1	W
15/08	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	6	7	W
09/08	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	7	0	W
01/08	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-2	2-2	10	10	D
31/07	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	3	7	D

Atlético Balboa

LDDWWLLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
12/09	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-1	3-1	4	5	W
09/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
06/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-2	2	8	L
30/08	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
23/08	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
15/08	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-2	4-2	1	8	W
10/08	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-1	0	3	D
02/08	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	9	8	D
28/07	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	2-2	2-4	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Internacional Santa Tecla vs Atlético Balboa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Internacional Santa Tecla win (55%). Probabilities: Internacional Santa Tecla 55%, draw 26%, Atlético Balboa 20%.

How many goals are expected in Internacional Santa Tecla vs Atlético Balboa?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Internacional Santa Tecla 1.74 · Atlético Balboa 0.96), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Internacional Santa Tecla vs Atlético Balboa?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.