Football · El Salvador Apertura · 10/10, 02:00

Prediction: CD INCA Aruba vs CD Platense Zacatecoluca

Team pages: CD INCA Aruba · CD Platense Zacatecoluca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

CD INCA Aruba1.21

CD Platense Zacatecoluca1.21

1X2

35% 29% 35%

CD INCA Aruba Draw CD Platense Zacatecoluca

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CD INCA Aruba 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DLDWWLWDWD

CD Platense Zacatecoluca 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWLLLDLW

Head-to-head

CD INCA Aruba 0–1 CD Platense Zacatecoluca (1 last)

CD Platense Zacatecoluca2-0CD INCA Aruba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD INCA Aruba 1514 · CD Platense Zacatecoluca 1464

	CD INCA Aruba	Draw	CD Platense Zacatecoluca
Our model	35%	30%	35%
Market	36%	29%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD INCA Aruba (rating 1514 vs 1464).
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD INCA Aruba	CD Platense Zacatecoluca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.8	1.7 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.10

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 00:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.50▼	Pinn 2.66 ★
X	3.20 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10
2	2.35 → 2.50▲	Pinn 2.66

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
20:17 +24’	2.63	3.20	2.35
10:19 +9’	2.55▼	3.10▼	2.45▲
15:18 +7’	2.63▲	3.10	2.40▼
00:49 +5’	2.50▼	3.10	2.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:25 +76’	2.75	2.86	2.65
10:21 +7’	3.04▲	2.77▼	2.45▼
14:00 +84’	2.67▼	2.96▲	2.64▲
20:49 +61’	2.63▼	2.96	2.63▼
00:04 +50’	2.66▲	3.07▲	2.66▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD INCA Aruba 0–0–1 CD Platense Zacatecoluca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 El Salvador Apertura	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	2-0 HT 1-0	CD INCA Aruba

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD FAS	13	8	3	2	24	12	27
2	AD Isidro Metapan	13	8	2	3	20	12	26
3	CD Luis Angel Firpo	13	7	4	2	23	9	25
4	Internacional Santa Tecla	14	5	7	2	19	12	22
5	CD Aguila	14	5	5	4	22	18	20
6	Alianza FC	13	4	6	3	20	19	18
7	Municipal Limeno	14	5	2	7	19	19	17
8	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	14	4	4	6	15	19	16
9	CD INCA Aruba	14	4	4	6	12	23	16
10	Atlético Balboa	14	3	4	7	15	22	13
11	CD Cacahuatique	14	2	5	7	14	24	11
12	Fuerte San Francisco	14	1	6	7	9	23	9

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD INCA Aruba	CD Platense Zacatecoluca
Municipal Limeno	2-1 W	2-1 W
Alianza FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Fuerte San Francisco	2-1 W	0-0 D
CD Aguila	1-3 L	0-1 L
Atlético Balboa	1-0 W	1-3 L
AD Isidro Metapan	1-0 W	1-2 L
CD Cacahuatique	1-1 D	2-1 W
Internacional Santa Tecla	1-4 L	0-3 L
CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: CD INCA Aruba (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD INCA Aruba

DLDWWLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
02/10	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	2-1	2-1	2	6	W
27/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
19/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-1	6	9	W
12/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-3	3	0	L
09/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
06/09	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
29/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	0	4	D
22/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-4	4	1	L
17/08	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	5	7	D

CD Platense Zacatecoluca

LDLWLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-1	7	5	W
01/10	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-2	9	6	L
27/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
20/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
12/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-3	4	5	L
09/09	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
05/09	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	2-0	2-1	4	10	W
29/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-3	3	8	L
26/08	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
24/08	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-1	0	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD INCA Aruba vs CD Platense Zacatecoluca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD INCA Aruba win (35%). Probabilities: CD INCA Aruba 35%, draw 29%, CD Platense Zacatecoluca 35%.

How many goals are expected in CD INCA Aruba vs CD Platense Zacatecoluca?

The model expects 2.41 goals (CD INCA Aruba 1.21 · CD Platense Zacatecoluca 1.21), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD INCA Aruba vs CD Platense Zacatecoluca?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.