Football · El Salvador Apertura · 31/10, 22:00

Prediction: CD Cacahuatique vs CD INCA Aruba

Team pages: CD Cacahuatique · CD INCA Aruba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

CD Cacahuatique1.62

CD INCA Aruba0.89

1X2

54% 26% 20%

CD Cacahuatique Draw CD INCA Aruba

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Cacahuatique 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWLLDD

CD INCA Aruba 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWDLLL

Head-to-head

CD Cacahuatique 0–1–0 CD INCA Aruba (1 last)

CD INCA Aruba1-1CD Cacahuatique

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Cacahuatique 1444 · CD INCA Aruba 1478

	CD Cacahuatique	Draw	CD INCA Aruba
Our model	53%	27%	19%
Market	55%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Cacahuatique	CD INCA Aruba
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.6	1.5 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.70

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 21:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.65▼	Bet365 1.65
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.80
2	4.10 → 4.33▲	Pinn 5.24 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
03:22 +7’	1.67	3.60	4.10
07:14 +2’	1.80▲	3.50▼	3.70▼
08:09 +9’	1.73▼	3.50	4.00▲
17:08 +15’	1.55▼	3.80▲	5.00▲
21:24 +4’	1.65▲	3.70▼	4.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:27 +2’	1.74	3.39	4.23
03:41 +41’	1.76▲	3.47▲	4.36▲
17:22 +1’	1.53▼	3.93▲	5.73▲
21:06 +23’	1.62▲	3.80▼	5.24▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Cacahuatique 0–1–0 CD INCA Aruba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 El Salvador Apertura	CD INCA Aruba	1-1 HT 0-0	CD Cacahuatique

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Luis Angel Firpo	16	9	5	2	29	12	32
2	CD FAS	17	9	4	4	28	18	31
3	AD Isidro Metapan	17	9	3	5	23	18	30
4	CD Aguila	17	7	6	4	30	21	27
5	Internacional Santa Tecla	18	6	9	3	24	16	27
6	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	18	7	6	5	25	20	27
7	Alianza FC	16	5	8	3	23	21	23
8	Municipal Limeno	17	6	3	8	26	26	21
9	CD INCA Aruba	17	4	4	9	13	31	16
10	Atletico Balboa	17	3	5	9	16	28	14
11	CD Cacahuatique	17	2	7	8	18	29	13
12	Fuerte San Francisco	17	2	6	9	14	29	12

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Cacahuatique	CD INCA Aruba
Municipal Limeno	3-3 D	2-1 W
Alianza FC	0-0 D	1-1 D
Fuerte San Francisco	1-2 L	2-1 W
CD Aguila	1-4 L	1-3 L
Atlético Balboa	2-0 W	1-0 W
AD Isidro Metapan	0-2 L	1-0 W
CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-0 D	0-2 L
CD FAS	0-2 L	1-1 D
Internacional Santa Tecla	0-2 L	0-2 L
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	1-2 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 6 L	4 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: CD INCA Aruba (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Cacahuatique

LLLDLWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	2-1	3-3	2	4	D
17/10	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
10/10	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
03/10	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-2	1-4	6	5	L
29/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
27/09	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
24/09	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
19/09	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
13/09	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
05/09	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-2	1-2	6	10	L

CD INCA Aruba

WWLWDWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
16/10	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
10/10	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-3	1-4	4	7	L
05/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
02/10	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	2-1	2-1	2	6	W
27/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
19/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-1	6	9	W
12/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-3	3	0	L
09/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
06/09	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Cacahuatique vs CD INCA Aruba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Cacahuatique win (54%). Probabilities: CD Cacahuatique 54%, draw 26%, CD INCA Aruba 20%.

How many goals are expected in CD Cacahuatique vs CD INCA Aruba?

The model expects 2.51 goals (CD Cacahuatique 1.62 · CD INCA Aruba 0.89), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Cacahuatique vs CD INCA Aruba?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.