Football · El Salvador Apertura · 20/09, 23:00

Prediction: Alianza FC vs Municipal Limeno

Team pages: Alianza FC · Municipal Limeno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.99Total

Alianza FC1.12

Municipal Limeno0.86

1X2

41% 31% 28%

Alianza FC Draw Municipal Limeno

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Municipal Limeno 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Alianza FC 4–2–0 Municipal Limeno (6 last)

Municipal Limeno0-0Alianza FC
Alianza FC1-0Municipal Limeno
Alianza FC3-0Municipal Limeno
Municipal Limeno0-0Alianza FC
Municipal Limeno0-1Alianza FC
Alianza FC3-1Municipal Limeno

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza FC 1547 · Municipal Limeno 1514

	Alianza FC	Draw	Municipal Limeno
Our model	40%	33%	27%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 1.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Alianza FC: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza FC	Municipal Limeno
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.1	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.6	5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.10

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.10▼	Bet365 2.10
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.80 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:17 +14’	2.30	3.10	2.80
11:22 +2’	2.10▼	3.10	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza FC 4–2–0 Municipal Limeno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 El Salvador Clausura	Municipal Limeno	0-0 HT 0-0	Alianza FC
22/02/26 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Municipal Limeno
30/11/25 El Salvador Apertura	Alianza FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Municipal Limeno
23/11/25 El Salvador Apertura	Municipal Limeno	0-0 HT 0-0	Alianza FC
05/11/25 El Salvador Apertura	Municipal Limeno	0-1 HT 0-1	Alianza FC
04/09/25 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	3-1 HT 2-0	Municipal Limeno

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Internacional Santa Tecla	10	5	4	1	16	8	19
2	AD Isidro Metapan	10	6	1	3	15	10	19
3	CD FAS	9	5	2	2	16	9	17
4	Municipal Limeno	10	5	2	3	14	9	17
5	CD Luis Angel Firpo	8	4	2	2	13	6	14
6	Atlético Balboa	10	3	3	4	11	13	12
7	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	10	3	3	4	12	15	12
8	CD Aguila	10	2	5	3	15	14	11
9	CD INCA Aruba	11	3	2	6	8	20	11
10	Alianza FC	7	2	3	2	9	9	9
11	CD Cacahuatique	9	1	4	4	11	16	7
12	Fuerte San Francisco	10	1	3	6	6	17	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza FC	Municipal Limeno
CD Aguila	2-2 D	0-0 D
Atlético Balboa	2-0 W	2-0 W
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	2-2 D	1-1 D
AD Isidro Metapan	0-2 L	3-1 W
CD Cacahuatique	0-0 D	3-1 W
Internacional Santa Tecla	0-2 L	0-1 L
CD INCA Aruba	3-1 W	2-0 W
CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Municipal Limeno (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	5	9	D
30/08	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-0	11	4	W
26/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
23/08	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
16/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
09/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
26/07	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
21/12	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
14/12	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
07/12	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	2-0	2-1	5	8	W

Municipal Limeno

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
10/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	6	10	D
06/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-0	8	8	W
29/08	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-1	3	3	W
22/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	2-1	3-1	4	3	W
15/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
09/08	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	11	5	L
02/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
30/07	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-0	8	6	W
25/07	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-3	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza FC vs Municipal Limeno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza FC win (41%). Probabilities: Alianza FC 41%, draw 31%, Municipal Limeno 28%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza FC vs Municipal Limeno?

The model expects 1.99 goals (Alianza FC 1.12 · Municipal Limeno 0.86), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC vs Municipal Limeno?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.