Football · El Salvador Apertura · 06/09, 23:00
Prediction: CD Aguila vs Alianza FC
Team pages: CD Aguila · Alianza FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.48Total
CD Aguila1.36
Alianza FC1.11
1X2
CD Aguila
Draw
Alianza FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
CD Aguila
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Alianza FC
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CD Aguila
4–2
Alianza FC
(6 last)
- Alianza FC0-2CD Aguila
- CD Aguila2-1Alianza FC
- Alianza FC0-2CD Aguila
- CD Aguila0-3Alianza FC
- Alianza FC0-1CD Aguila
- CD Aguila1-2Alianza FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CD Aguila 1510 · Alianza FC 1550
| CD Aguila | Draw | Alianza FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 29% | 29% |
| Market | 41% | 29% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza FC (rating 1510 vs 1550).
- H2H favours CD Aguila: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CD Aguila | Alianza FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.7 | 2.6 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.7 / 0.6 | 4.2 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Aguila 4–0–2 Alianza FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 El Salvador Clausura | Alianza FC | 0-2 HT 0-2 | CD Aguila |
| 06/05/26 El Salvador Clausura | CD Aguila | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Alianza FC |
| 16/04/26 El Salvador Clausura | Alianza FC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | CD Aguila |
| 19/02/26 El Salvador Clausura | CD Aguila | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Alianza FC |
| 02/11/25 El Salvador Apertura | Alianza FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | CD Aguila |
| 20/09/25 El Salvador Clausura | CD Aguila | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Alianza FC |
Standings · El Salvador Apertura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internacional Santa Tecla | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 15 |
| 2 | CD FAS | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | AD Isidro Metapan | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | CD Luis Angel Firpo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 11 |
| 5 | Municipal Limeno | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| 6 | Atlético Balboa | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| 6 | CD Platense Zacatecoluca | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| 8 | Alianza FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| 9 | CD Cacahuatique | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 7 |
| 10 | CD Aguila | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 6 |
| 11 | Fuerte San Francisco | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 6 |
| 12 | CD INCA Aruba | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CD Aguila | Alianza FC |
|---|---|---|
| Atlético Balboa | 2-4 L | 2-0 W |
| AD Isidro Metapan | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| CD Cacahuatique | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Internacional Santa Tecla | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| CD Luis Angel Firpo | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: CD Aguila (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CD Aguila
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura |
1-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | CD FAS El Salvador Apertura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 15/08 | Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura |
2-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 08/08 | AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 02/08 | CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura |
0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 31/07 | Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 26/07 | CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 14/12 | CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 07/12 | CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 12 | L |
| 30/11 | AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
Alianza FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 26/08 | CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 16/08 | CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 09/08 | Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 26/07 | CD INCA El Salvador Apertura |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/12 | CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 14/12 | CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 07/12 | CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 30/11 | Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CD Aguila vs Alianza FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Aguila win (41%). Probabilities: CD Aguila 41%, draw 29%, Alianza FC 30%.
How many goals are expected in CD Aguila vs Alianza FC?
The model expects 2.48 goals (CD Aguila 1.36 · Alianza FC 1.11), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in CD Aguila vs Alianza FC?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.