Football · El Salvador Apertura · 13/09, 23:00

Prediction: Fuerte San Francisco vs Municipal Limeno

Team pages: Fuerte San Francisco · Municipal Limeno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Fuerte San Francisco1.08

Municipal Limeno1.35

1X2

29% 29% 42%

Fuerte San Francisco Draw Municipal Limeno

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Fuerte San Francisco 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLDDWLLL

Municipal Limeno 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDLLWWWD

Head-to-head

Fuerte San Francisco 1–2–3 Municipal Limeno (6 last)

Fuerte San Francisco0-2Municipal Limeno
Municipal Limeno5-0Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco1-1Municipal Limeno
Municipal Limeno2-1Fuerte San Francisco
Municipal Limeno1-2Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco0-0Municipal Limeno

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fuerte San Francisco 1434 · Municipal Limeno 1528

	Fuerte San Francisco	Draw	Municipal Limeno
Our model	29%	30%	42%
Market	29%	29%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Municipal Limeno (rating 1434 vs 1528).
H2H favours Municipal Limeno: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fuerte San Francisco	Municipal Limeno
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.7	3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.10

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.52 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.12
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
15:51 +6’	3.10	3.10	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:42 +15’	3.52	3.12	2.02

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fuerte San Francisco 1–2–3 Municipal Limeno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 El Salvador Clausura	Fuerte San Francisco	0-2 HT 0-1	Municipal Limeno
15/02/26 El Salvador Clausura	Municipal Limeno	5-0 HT 1-0	Fuerte San Francisco
26/10/25 El Salvador Apertura	Fuerte San Francisco	1-1 HT 0-1	Municipal Limeno
25/08/25 El Salvador Clausura	Municipal Limeno	2-1 HT 0-1	Fuerte San Francisco
24/03/25 El Salvador Clausura	Municipal Limeno	1-2 HT 1-1	Fuerte San Francisco
26/01/25 El Salvador Clausura	Fuerte San Francisco	0-0 HT 0-0	Municipal Limeno

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD FAS	8	5	1	2	14	7	16
2	AD Isidro Metapan	9	5	1	3	13	9	16
3	Internacional Santa Tecla	8	4	3	1	12	6	15
4	CD Luis Angel Firpo	7	4	2	1	12	4	14
5	Municipal Limeno	9	4	2	3	12	9	14
6	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	9	3	3	3	11	12	12
7	Alianza FC	7	2	3	2	9	9	9
8	Atlético Balboa	9	2	3	4	8	12	9
9	CD Aguila	9	1	5	3	12	13	8
10	CD INCA Aruba	9	2	2	5	5	16	8
11	CD Cacahuatique	8	1	4	3	11	14	7
12	Fuerte San Francisco	8	1	3	4	5	13	6

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fuerte San Francisco	Municipal Limeno
CD FAS	0-1 L	1-3 L
CD Aguila	1-4 L	0-0 D
Atlético Balboa	0-1 L	2-0 W
AD Isidro Metapan	1-0 W	3-1 W
CD Cacahuatique	0-0 D	3-1 W
Internacional Santa Tecla	2-2 D	0-1 L
CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-4 L	0-2 L
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	1-1 D	1-1 D
Alianza FC	1-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Municipal Limeno (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fuerte San Francisco

WLDLDDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
30/08	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-4	2	6	L
23/08	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
15/08	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	8	0	W
09/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
01/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	2-1	2-2	4	10	D
30/07	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-2	0-4	1	2	L
26/07	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
16/11	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-3	6	4	L
09/11	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	4	2	W

Municipal Limeno

LLWDLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	6	10	D
06/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-0	8	8	W
29/08	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-1	3	3	W
22/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	2-1	3-1	4	3	W
15/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
09/08	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	11	5	L
02/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
30/07	CD INCA El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-0	8	6	W
25/07	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-3	2	5	L
30/11	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-2	0-3	4	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fuerte San Francisco vs Municipal Limeno?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Municipal Limeno win (42%). Probabilities: Fuerte San Francisco 29%, draw 29%, Municipal Limeno 42%.

How many goals are expected in Fuerte San Francisco vs Municipal Limeno?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Fuerte San Francisco 1.08 · Municipal Limeno 1.35), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Fuerte San Francisco vs Municipal Limeno?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.