Football · El Salvador Apertura · 10/09, 01:00

Prediction: Municipal Limeno vs CD Aguila

Team pages: Municipal Limeno · CD Aguila

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Municipal Limeno1.2

CD Aguila1.34

1X2

33% 28% 39%

Municipal Limeno Draw CD Aguila

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Municipal Limeno 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWDLLWWW

CD Aguila 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDDLLLWD

Head-to-head

Municipal Limeno 2–4 CD Aguila (6 last)

Municipal Limeno2-0CD Aguila
CD Aguila1-0Municipal Limeno
Municipal Limeno1-2CD Aguila
CD Aguila2-1Municipal Limeno
Municipal Limeno0-2CD Aguila
CD Aguila0-2Municipal Limeno

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Municipal Limeno 1509 · CD Aguila 1498

	Municipal Limeno	Draw	CD Aguila
Our model	32%	29%	39%
Market	33%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CD Aguila: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Municipal Limeno	CD Aguila
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.6	2.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.5	6.7 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.25

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.64 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:04 +6’	2.70	3.25	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:54 +15’	2.70	2.92	2.64

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Municipal Limeno 2–0–4 CD Aguila

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 El Salvador Clausura	Municipal Limeno	2-0 HT 1-0	CD Aguila
08/02/26 El Salvador Clausura	CD Aguila	1-0 HT 1-0	Municipal Limeno
19/10/25 El Salvador Clausura	Municipal Limeno	1-2 HT 1-0	CD Aguila
17/08/25 El Salvador Clausura	CD Aguila	2-1 HT 1-0	Municipal Limeno
03/05/25 El Salvador Clausura	Municipal Limeno	0-2 HT 0-1	CD Aguila
09/03/25 El Salvador Clausura	CD Aguila	0-2 HT 0-1	Municipal Limeno

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD FAS	8	5	1	2	14	7	16
2	Internacional Santa Tecla	8	4	3	1	12	6	15
3	CD Luis Angel Firpo	7	4	2	1	12	4	14
4	Municipal Limeno	8	4	1	3	12	9	13
5	AD Isidro Metapan	8	4	1	3	11	8	13
6	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	8	3	3	2	10	10	12
7	Alianza FC	7	2	3	2	9	9	9
8	Atlético Balboa	8	2	3	3	8	11	9
9	CD Aguila	8	1	4	3	12	13	7
10	CD Cacahuatique	8	1	4	3	11	14	7
11	Fuerte San Francisco	8	1	3	4	5	13	6
12	CD INCA Aruba	8	1	2	5	4	16	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Municipal Limeno	CD Aguila
Atlético Balboa	2-0 W	2-4 L
AD Isidro Metapan	3-1 W	1-2 L
CD Cacahuatique	3-1 W	2-2 D
Internacional Santa Tecla	0-1 L	0-0 D
CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-2 L	1-1 D
CD FAS	1-3 L	0-1 L
Alianza FC	0-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CD Aguila (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Municipal Limeno

DLLWDLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-0	8	8	W
29/08	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-1	3	3	W
22/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	2-1	3-1	4	3	W
15/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
09/08	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	11	5	L
02/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
30/07	CD INCA El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-0	8	6	W
25/07	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-3	2	5	L
30/11	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-2	0-3	4	8	L
23/11	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	5	4	D

CD Aguila

LWDDDLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	4	9	D
30/08	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-1	4-1	8	6	W
23/08	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
15/08	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	2-1	2-4	3	8	L
08/08	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
02/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-2	7	6	D
31/07	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
26/07	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
14/12	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
07/12	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-3	8	12	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Municipal Limeno vs CD Aguila?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Aguila win (39%). Probabilities: Municipal Limeno 33%, draw 28%, CD Aguila 39%.

How many goals are expected in Municipal Limeno vs CD Aguila?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Municipal Limeno 1.2 · CD Aguila 1.34), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Municipal Limeno vs CD Aguila?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.