Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 24/07, 15:30

Prediction: FK Orol Nukus vs Shurtan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

FK Orol Nukus1.92

Shurtan1

1X2

58% 23% 19%

FK Orol Nukus Draw Shurtan

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Orol Nukus 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDWLLWWW

Shurtan 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWWLLWWL

Head-to-head

FK Orol Nukus 2–2–2 Shurtan (6 last)

FK Orol Nukus0-3Shurtan
FK Orol Nukus1-0Shurtan
Shurtan6-0FK Orol Nukus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Orol Nukus 1557 · Shurtan 1510

	FK Orol Nukus	Draw	Shurtan
Our model	58%	24%	18%
Market	59%	22%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Orol Nukus (rating 1557 vs 1510).
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Orol Nukus	Shurtan
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	33/44/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.4	1.4 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	2.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.00

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
05:52 +12’	1.53	4.00	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Orol Nukus 2–2–2 Shurtan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/10/22 Uzbekistan Play-Offs	FK Orol Nukus	0-3	Shurtan
13/08/22 Uzbekistan 1st Division	FK Orol Nukus	1-0 HT 0-0	Shurtan
29/04/22 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Shurtan	6-0 HT 3-0	FK Orol Nukus
22/09/21 Uzbekistan 2nd Division	Shurtan	1-1	FK Orol Nukus
08/06/21 Uzbekistan 2nd Division	Shurtan	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Orol Nukus
20/08/18 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Shurtan	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Orol Nukus

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	10	8	2	0	24	7	26
2	Shurtan	10	7	2	1	15	8	23
3	FC Lochin	10	6	3	1	19	7	21
4	Kattaqorgon	10	5	3	2	11	6	18
5	Gazalkent	11	5	3	3	17	14	18
6	Metallurg Bekabad	11	5	3	3	25	11	18
7	Fardu Ferghana	10	3	4	3	13	19	13
8	FC Yaypan Fergana	10	4	1	5	13	20	13
9	Olympic Mobiuz	10	3	3	4	18	13	12
10	Respublika FA	10	3	3	4	12	10	12
11	Jayxun	10	2	2	6	7	16	8
12	BuxDu	10	2	1	7	7	21	7
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	10	1	1	8	6	23	4
14	PFC Terdu	10	1	1	8	8	20	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Orol Nukus	Shurtan
Jayxun	4-1 W	2-1 W
Pakhtakor Tashkent II	3-0 W	2-0 W
PFC Terdu	1-0 W	1-0 W
Metallurg Bekabad	1-2 L	1-0 W
FC Yaypan Fergana	5-1 W	2-2 D
FC Lochin	2-2 D	2-1 W
Fardu Ferghana	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Orol Nukus (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Orol Nukus

WDWDWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/06	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	3-0	4-1	12	1	W
03/06	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
29/05	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
20/05	AGMK Uzbekistan Cup	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
16/05	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
06/05	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	3-0	5-1	7	2	W
01/05	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
26/04	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
21/04	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
17/04	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-0	–	–	W

Shurtan

DWDWWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/06	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
04/06	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
30/05	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
26/05	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	0-4	3	3	L
15/05	FK Andijan Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	1-3	6	0	L
05/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
29/04	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
24/04	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
20/04	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
15/04	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-2	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Orol Nukus vs Shurtan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Orol Nukus win (58%). Probabilities: FK Orol Nukus 58%, draw 23%, Shurtan 19%.

How many goals are expected in FK Orol Nukus vs Shurtan?

The model expects 2.92 goals (FK Orol Nukus 1.92 · Shurtan 1), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Orol Nukus vs Shurtan?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.