Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 31/07, 15:15

Prediction: Jayxun vs BuxDu

Team pages: Jayxun · BuxDu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Jayxun1.53

BuxDu1.1

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Jayxun Draw BuxDu

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Jayxun 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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BuxDu 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jayxun 1486 · BuxDu 1466

	Jayxun	Draw	BuxDu
Our model	46%	28%	26%
Market	46%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jayxun	BuxDu
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/25/38%	25/38/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.1	1 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	1.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.30

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +8’	1.95	3.30	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	11	9	2	0	27	8	29
2	Shurtan	11	7	2	2	16	11	23
3	FC Lochin	11	6	3	2	20	9	21
4	Kattaqorgon	11	6	3	2	13	7	21
5	Gazalkent	11	5	3	3	17	14	18
6	Metallurg Bekabad	11	5	3	3	25	11	18
7	Fardu Ferghana	11	4	4	3	15	20	16
8	Olympic Mobiuz	11	4	3	4	21	13	15
9	FC Yaypan Fergana	11	4	1	6	14	22	13
10	Respublika FA	11	3	3	5	13	12	12
11	Jayxun	11	3	2	6	9	17	11
12	BuxDu	11	3	1	7	9	21	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	11	1	1	9	6	25	4
14	PFC Terdu	11	1	1	9	8	23	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jayxun	BuxDu
PFC Terdu	1-0 W	2-0 W
Metallurg Bekabad	2-0 W	0-3 L
Pakhtakor Tashkent II	3-0 W	2-0 W
FC Yaypan Fergana	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Jayxun

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	2-1	1	4	W
08/06	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-3	1-4	3	1	L
03/06	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
30/05	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
24/05	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan Cup	0-3	0-4	3	2	L
17/05	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	1-0	6	7	W
05/05	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
01/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	3-0	3-0	4	4	W
25/04	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
20/04	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	0-2	6	5	L

BuxDu

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
10/06	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
05/06	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
31/05	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-4	–	–	L
26/05	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan Cup	0-4	2-6	0	0	L
22/05	Guliston Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
06/05	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
30/04	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
25/04	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	1-4	–	–	L
20/04	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	0-3	0	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jayxun vs BuxDu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jayxun win (46%). Probabilities: Jayxun 46%, draw 28%, BuxDu 26%.

How many goals are expected in Jayxun vs BuxDu?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Jayxun 1.53 · BuxDu 1.1), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Jayxun vs BuxDu?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.