Football · Paraguay Women League · 26/07, 20:00

Prediction: Sportivo Trinidense (W) vs Olimpia Asuncion (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.1Total

Sportivo Trinidense (W)1.05

Olimpia Asuncion (W)3.05

1X2

6% 11% 83%

Sportivo Trinidense (W) Draw Olimpia Asuncion (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-3

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo Trinidense (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDWDWL

Olimpia Asuncion (W) 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Sportivo Trinidense (W) 0–1–4 Olimpia Asuncion (W) (5 last)

Sportivo Trinidense (W)2-3Olimpia Asuncion (W)
Olimpia Asuncion (W)9-0Sportivo Trinidense (W)
Sportivo Trinidense (W)1-13Olimpia Asuncion (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo Trinidense (W) 1522 · Olimpia Asuncion (W) 1619

	Sportivo Trinidense (W)	Draw	Olimpia Asuncion (W)
Our model	9%	14%	77%
Market	4%	9%	87%

Estimated total (ours) 4.1 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olimpia Asuncion (W) (rating 1522 vs 1619).
H2H favours Olimpia Asuncion (W): 4-1-0.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo Trinidense (W)	Olimpia Asuncion (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	4.7 / 0.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	2.1 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.6	2.5 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

123.00

X11.00

21.07

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3)1.98

2 (-3)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.88

Under 4.251.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	27.00 → 23.00▼	Bet365 23.00
X	13.00 → 11.00▼	Bet365 11.00
2	1.04 → 1.07▲	Bet365 1.07

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:33 +18’	27.00	13.00	1.04
18:17 +1’	23.00▼	11.00▼	1.07▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Trinidense (W) 0–1–4 Olimpia Asuncion (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/25 Paraguay Women League	Sportivo Trinidense (W)	2-3	Olimpia Asuncion (W)
09/03/25 Paraguay Women League	Olimpia Asuncion (W)	9-0 HT 2-0	Sportivo Trinidense (W)
29/06/24 Paraguay Women League	Sportivo Trinidense (W)	1-13 HT 0-8	Olimpia Asuncion (W)
14/04/24 Paraguay Women League	Olimpia Asuncion (W)	5-0 HT 3-0	Sportivo Trinidense (W)
17/09/23 Paraguay Women League	Sportivo Trinidense (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Olimpia Asuncion (W)

Standings · Paraguay Women League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Libertad Limpeno (W)	13	11	2	0	65	6	35
2	Olimpia Asuncion (W)	11	9	2	0	50	2	29
3	Club Guarani (W)	13	9	2	2	27	15	29
4	Cerro Porteno (W)	13	7	3	3	42	10	24
5	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	13	6	1	6	35	30	19
6	Nacional-Humaita (W)	14	6	1	7	23	29	19
7	Sportivo Trinidense (W)	11	5	2	4	15	16	17
8	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	12	4	2	6	17	28	14
9	2 de Mayo (W)	13	3	1	9	19	41	10
10	Rubio Nu (W)	12	2	3	7	10	34	9
11	Sportivo Luqueno (W)	13	1	3	9	8	49	6
12	Sportivo Ameliano (W)	12	0	2	10	7	58	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo Trinidense (W)	Olimpia Asuncion (W)
Club Guarani (W)	1-4 L	4-1 W
Sportivo Ameliano (W)	3-2 W	10-0 W
Cerro Porteno (W)	1-1 D	0-0 D
Nacional-Humaita (W)	0-1 L	3-0 W
2 de Mayo (W)	4-2 W	5-0 W
Sportivo Luqueno (W)	1-0 W	7-0 W
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	4-1 W	7-0 W
Libertad Limpeno (W)	0-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	6 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Olimpia Asuncion (W) (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo Trinidense (W)

LWWWLDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	1-1	1-4	1	3	L
15/07	Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	3-0	8	2	W
12/07	Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
28/06	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	3-2	7	6	W
30/05	Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
23/05	Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-1	1	9	L
16/05	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	2-2	4-2	8	4	W
12/05	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-0	3	9	W
02/05	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	4-1	5	10	W
25/04	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-3	0	4	L

Olimpia Asuncion (W)

WWDDWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	4-1	7	7	W
18/07	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	5-0	5	4	W
05/07	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	3-0	3-0	2	8	W
27/06	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	3-0	7-0	15	1	W
23/05	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	7-0	9	2	W
17/05	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	5-0	10-0	9	1	W
10/05	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
03/05	Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
25/04	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	3-0	7-0	8	2	W
19/04	Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	3-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo Trinidense (W) vs Olimpia Asuncion (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Olimpia Asuncion (W) win (83%). Probabilities: Sportivo Trinidense (W) 6%, draw 11%, Olimpia Asuncion (W) 83%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo Trinidense (W) vs Olimpia Asuncion (W)?

The model expects 4.1 goals (Sportivo Trinidense (W) 1.05 · Olimpia Asuncion (W) 3.05), with a 53% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo Trinidense (W) vs Olimpia Asuncion (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.