Football · Brazil Copa Sergipe · 30/07, 01:00

Prediction: America FC Propria vs Lagarto

Team pages: Lagarto

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.14Total

America FC Propria0.87

Lagarto1.26

1X2

26% 29% 45%

America FC Propria Draw Lagarto

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

America FC Propria 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDWLDDWDDL

Lagarto 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDDDWWDL

Head-to-head

America FC Propria 1–1–4 Lagarto (6 last)

Lagarto0-3America FC Propria
Lagarto0-0America FC Propria
Lagarto2-1America FC Propria
America FC Propria1-2Lagarto
Lagarto2-0America FC Propria
Lagarto4-1America FC Propria

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · America FC Propria 1516 · Lagarto 1477

	America FC Propria	Draw	Lagarto
Our model	24%	31%	44%
Market	26%	27%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lagarto: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	America FC Propria	Lagarto
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.4	2.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.5	5.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.30

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
00:01 +5’	3.40	3.30	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · America FC Propria 1–1–4 Lagarto

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	Lagarto	0-3 HT 0-2	America FC Propria
05/02/26 Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	Lagarto	0-0 HT 0-0	America FC Propria
11/01/25 Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	Lagarto	2-1 HT 1-0	America FC Propria
14/01/24 Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	America FC Propria	1-2 HT 0-2	Lagarto
11/02/23 Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	Lagarto	2-0 HT 1-0	America FC Propria
12/03/22 Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	Lagarto	4-1 HT 3-1	America FC Propria

Standings · Brazil Copa Sergipe

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AA Guarany	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Gloriense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	America FC Propria	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Desportiva Aracaju	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Falcon	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lagarto	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

America FC Propria

DDWLDDWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/03	Itabaiana Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
01/03	CS Sergipe Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-1	1-1	1	6	D
27/02	CS Sergipe Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
22/02	Lagarto Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	2-0	3-0	4	7	W
19/02	CEFAT Tirol Copa do Brasil	1-0	1-1	4	9	D
14/02	AD Confianca Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
11/02	Itabaiana Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-3	0-3	2	8	L
07/02	Falcon Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	1-1	2-1	7	9	W
05/02	Lagarto Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
31/01	Desportiva Aracaju Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-0	0-0	8	4	D

Lagarto

LLLDDDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	CSA Brazil Serie D	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
21/06	CSA Brazil Serie D	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
14/06	Decisao Brazil Serie D	1-0	1-0	2	11	W
30/05	Treze Brazil Serie D	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
24/05	Retro FC Brasil Brazil Serie D	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
17/05	CS Sergipe Brazil Serie D	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
09/05	Serra Branca EC Brazil Serie D	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
02/05	Serra Branca EC Brazil Serie D	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
25/04	CS Sergipe Brazil Serie D	1-1	1-3	5	7	L
18/04	Retro FC Brasil Brazil Serie D	0-0	1-2	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in America FC Propria vs Lagarto?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lagarto win (45%). Probabilities: America FC Propria 26%, draw 29%, Lagarto 45%.

How many goals are expected in America FC Propria vs Lagarto?

The model expects 2.14 goals (America FC Propria 0.87 · Lagarto 1.26), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in America FC Propria vs Lagarto?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.