Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 26/07, 15:00

Prediction: Carapegua vs General Caballero JLM

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Carapegua1.53

General Caballero JLM1.74

1X2

33% 26% 41%

Carapegua Draw General Caballero JLM

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Carapegua 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDLLDDLW

General Caballero JLM 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLLWWL

Head-to-head

Carapegua 0–1 General Caballero JLM (1 last)

General Caballero JLM6-2Carapegua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carapegua 1454 · General Caballero JLM 1526

	Carapegua	Draw	General Caballero JLM
Our model	33%	25%	42%
Market	32%	27%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours General Caballero JLM (rating 1454 vs 1526).
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carapegua	General Caballero JLM
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4	1.4 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.4	5.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.30

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 17:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:29 +2’	2.80	3.30	2.20
16:24 +5’	3.30▲	3.40▲	1.95▼
17:29 +3’	2.80▼	3.30▼	2.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carapegua 0–0–1 General Caballero JLM

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/04/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	General Caballero JLM	6-2 HT 4-0	Carapegua

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	15	10	3	2	22	11	33
2	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	15	9	4	2	26	13	31
3	Deportivo Santaní	16	8	3	5	22	14	27
4	General Caballero JLM	15	8	3	4	30	21	27
5	Sol de America	15	5	8	2	18	13	23
6	Club Atlético Tembetary	15	6	4	5	24	21	22
7	Deportivo Capiata	15	5	7	3	21	18	22
8	Guairena FC	15	6	3	6	17	19	21
9	Independiente FBC	15	5	5	5	23	22	20
10	Carapegua	15	5	4	6	18	27	19
11	Resistencia FC	15	4	6	5	16	20	18
12	Fernando de la Mora	15	5	3	7	18	24	18
13	Tacuary	15	2	8	5	19	23	14
14	Paraguari AC	16	3	4	9	15	22	13
15	Encarnacion FC	15	3	2	10	15	23	11
16	3 de Noviembre	15	0	7	8	13	26	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carapegua	General Caballero JLM
Guairena FC	2-1 W	0-0 D
Resistencia FC	1-1 D	2-2 D
Sol de America	1-1 D	3-2 W
Paraguari AC	0-1 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: General Caballero JLM (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Carapegua

LLWDLLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
15/07	Club 4 de Mayo Paraguay Cup	0-0	1-2	10	4	L
10/07	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
05/07	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	4	0	D
27/06	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	2-5	1	2	L
06/06	Independiente FBC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
31/05	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	2-2	6	5	D
25/05	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
21/05	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
17/05	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-1	3	6	L

General Caballero JLM

WDDWWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
14/07	CS Limpeno Paraguay Cup	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
11/07	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-0	1	1	W
05/07	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
27/06	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	2-3	7	8	L
09/06	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	3-2	8	9	W
31/05	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	3-2	3	9	W
26/05	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
21/05	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	2-2	2	7	D
17/05	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	3-2	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carapegua vs General Caballero JLM?

According to our model, the most likely result is an General Caballero JLM win (41%). Probabilities: Carapegua 33%, draw 26%, General Caballero JLM 41%.

How many goals are expected in Carapegua vs General Caballero JLM?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Carapegua 1.53 · General Caballero JLM 1.74), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Carapegua vs General Caballero JLM?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.