Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 03/08, 22:00

Prediction: 3 de Noviembre vs Carapegua

Team pages: 3 de Noviembre · Carapegua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

3 de Noviembre1.38

Carapegua1.44

1X2

35% 28% 38%

3 de Noviembre Draw Carapegua

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

3 de Noviembre 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

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Carapegua 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

3 de Noviembre 0–1 Carapegua (1 last)

Carapegua2-13 de Noviembre

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · 3 de Noviembre 1410 · Carapegua 1466

	3 de Noviembre	Draw	Carapegua
Our model	35%	28%	38%
Market	35%	28%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carapegua (rating 1410 vs 1466).
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	3 de Noviembre	Carapegua
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4	1.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.6	3.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.20

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
23:18 +6’	2.60	3.20	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · 3 de Noviembre 0–0–1 Carapegua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Carapegua	2-1 HT 1-0	3 de Noviembre

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	17	11	4	2	24	12	37
2	General Caballero JLM	17	10	3	4	34	22	33
3	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	17	9	5	3	27	16	32
4	Deportivo Santaní	16	8	3	5	22	14	27
5	Sol de America	16	5	9	2	19	14	24
6	Resistencia FC	17	6	6	5	20	21	24
7	Club Atlético Tembetary	17	6	5	6	24	22	23
8	Guairena FC	17	6	5	6	18	20	23
9	Deportivo Capiata	16	5	8	3	22	19	23
10	Independiente FBC	16	5	6	5	24	23	21
11	Fernando de la Mora	17	5	5	7	19	25	20
12	Carapegua	16	5	4	7	19	29	19
13	Tacuary	17	2	9	6	21	27	15
14	Paraguari AC	16	3	4	9	15	22	13
15	Encarnacion FC	16	3	3	10	15	23	12
16	3 de Noviembre	16	0	7	9	13	27	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	3 de Noviembre	Carapegua
General Caballero JLM	2-3 L	1-2 L
Guairena FC	1-2 L	2-1 W
Resistencia FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Sol de America	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Carapegua (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

3 de Noviembre

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
19/07	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
14/07	Cristobal Colon JAS Paraguay Cup	1-2	2-3	3	4	L
11/07	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
03/07	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	2-2	5	9	D
28/06	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
09/06	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-3	1	9	L
01/06	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-2	3	8	L
24/05	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-1	4	10	D
20/05	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-2	10	7	L

Carapegua

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
18/07	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
15/07	Club 4 de Mayo Paraguay Cup	0-0	1-2	10	4	L
10/07	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
05/07	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	4	0	D
27/06	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	2-5	1	2	L
06/06	Independiente FBC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
31/05	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	2-2	6	5	D
25/05	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
21/05	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-2	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in 3 de Noviembre vs Carapegua?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Carapegua win (38%). Probabilities: 3 de Noviembre 35%, draw 28%, Carapegua 38%.

How many goals are expected in 3 de Noviembre vs Carapegua?

The model expects 2.82 goals (3 de Noviembre 1.38 · Carapegua 1.44), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in 3 de Noviembre vs Carapegua?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.