Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 02/08, 15:00

Prediction: Sol de America vs Independiente FBC

Team pages: Sol de America · Independiente FBC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Sol de America1.41

Independiente FBC1

1X2

45% 29% 26%

Sol de America Draw Independiente FBC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sol de America 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDDDDW

Independiente FBC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLDDLWD

Head-to-head

Sol de America 0–2–4 Independiente FBC (6 last)

Independiente FBC1-0Sol de America
Sol de America0-2Independiente FBC
Independiente FBC2-0Sol de America
Sol de America1-3Independiente FBC
Independiente FBC2-2Sol de America
Independiente FBC2-2Sol de America

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sol de America 1557 · Independiente FBC 1508

	Sol de America	Draw	Independiente FBC
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sol de America (rating 1557 vs 1508).
H2H favours Independiente FBC: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sol de America	Independiente FBC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.6	2.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	1.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.2	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
23:13 +1’	1.95	3.20	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sol de America 0–2–4 Independiente FBC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Independiente FBC	1-0 HT 0-0	Sol de America
19/07/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Sol de America	0-2 HT 0-1	Independiente FBC
12/04/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Independiente FBC	2-0 HT 0-0	Sol de America
03/09/23 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Sol de America	1-3 HT 0-2	Independiente FBC
30/05/23 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Independiente FBC	2-2 HT 1-1	Sol de America
27/10/18 Paraguay Division Profesional	Independiente FBC	2-2 HT 0-0	Sol de America

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	17	11	4	2	24	12	37
2	General Caballero JLM	17	10	3	4	34	22	33
3	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	17	9	5	3	27	16	32
4	Deportivo Santaní	16	8	3	5	22	14	27
5	Sol de America	16	5	9	2	19	14	24
6	Deportivo Capiata	16	5	8	3	22	19	23
7	Club Atlético Tembetary	16	6	4	6	24	22	22
8	Guairena FC	16	6	4	6	18	20	22
9	Independiente FBC	16	5	6	5	24	23	21
10	Resistencia FC	16	5	6	5	17	20	21
11	Fernando de la Mora	17	5	5	7	19	25	20
12	Carapegua	16	5	4	7	19	29	19
13	Tacuary	16	2	9	5	20	24	15
14	Paraguari AC	16	3	4	9	15	22	13
15	Encarnacion FC	16	3	3	10	15	23	12
16	3 de Noviembre	16	0	7	9	13	27	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sol de America	Independiente FBC
Tacuary	1-1 D	2-2 D
Club Atlético Tembetary	1-1 D	2-2 D
Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	1-1 D	1-2 L
Carapegua	1-1 D	2-0 W
12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	1-0 W	1-2 L
Encarnacion FC	3-2 W	3-2 W
Deportivo Santaní	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 5 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sol de America (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sol de America

WWDWWDDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	River Plate Asuncion Paraguay Cup	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
25/07	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
19/07	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
12/07	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
05/07	Carapegua Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	7	0	D
28/06	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	0	6	W
08/06	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	3-2	2	7	W
29/05	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
24/05	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
20/05	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	2-0	4	7	W

Independiente FBC

LWLWLDDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
23/07	Atletico Naciones Unidas Paraguay Cup	5-0	10-0	6	0	W
18/07	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	2-3	1	7	L
13/07	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	2-2	7	2	D
08/07	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-2	2-2	6	6	D
30/06	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
06/06	Carapegua Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
30/05	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-2	1	8	L
23/05	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	3-2	3	5	W
19/05	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-2	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sol de America vs Independiente FBC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sol de America win (45%). Probabilities: Sol de America 45%, draw 29%, Independiente FBC 26%.

How many goals are expected in Sol de America vs Independiente FBC?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Sol de America 1.41 · Independiente FBC 1), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sol de America vs Independiente FBC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.