Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 29/07, 00:30

Prediction: Independiente FBC vs Deportivo Capiata

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Independiente FBC1.5

Deportivo Capiata1.39

1X2

39% 28% 34%

Independiente FBC Draw Deportivo Capiata

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente FBC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLWLDDLW

Deportivo Capiata 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWDWDLDL

Head-to-head

Independiente FBC 3–2–1 Deportivo Capiata (6 last)

Deportivo Capiata2-2Independiente FBC
Deportivo Capiata1-2Independiente FBC
Independiente FBC1-2Deportivo Capiata

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente FBC 1516 · Deportivo Capiata 1480

	Independiente FBC	Draw	Deportivo Capiata
Our model	39%	27%	34%
Market	38%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Independiente FBC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente FBC	Deportivo Capiata
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.2	1.8 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.20

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:38 +4’	2.35	3.20	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente FBC 3–2–1 Deportivo Capiata

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Deportivo Capiata	2-2 HT 2-2	Independiente FBC
29/09/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Deportivo Capiata	1-2 HT 1-1	Independiente FBC
23/06/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Independiente FBC	1-2 HT 1-0	Deportivo Capiata
21/06/23 Paraguay Cup	Deportivo Capiata	0-2 HT 0-0	Independiente FBC
16/07/21 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Independiente FBC	1-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Capiata
13/04/21 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Deportivo Capiata	0-3	Independiente FBC

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	15	10	3	2	22	11	33
2	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	15	9	4	2	26	13	31
3	Deportivo Santaní	16	8	3	5	22	14	27
4	General Caballero JLM	15	8	3	4	30	21	27
5	Sol de America	15	5	8	2	18	13	23
6	Club Atlético Tembetary	15	6	4	5	24	21	22
7	Deportivo Capiata	15	5	7	3	21	18	22
8	Guairena FC	15	6	3	6	17	19	21
9	Independiente FBC	15	5	5	5	23	22	20
10	Carapegua	15	5	4	6	18	27	19
11	Resistencia FC	15	4	6	5	16	20	18
12	Fernando de la Mora	15	5	3	7	18	24	18
13	Tacuary	15	2	8	5	19	23	14
14	Paraguari AC	16	3	4	9	15	22	13
15	Encarnacion FC	15	3	2	10	15	23	11
16	3 de Noviembre	15	0	7	8	13	26	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente FBC	Deportivo Capiata
Tacuary	2-2 D	0-0 D
Club Atlético Tembetary	2-2 D	1-3 L
Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	1-2 L	1-1 D
Carapegua	2-0 W	5-2 W
12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	1-2 L	1-1 D
Encarnacion FC	3-2 W	1-0 W
Deportivo Santaní	0-2 L	0-1 L
Fernando de la Mora	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Capiata (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Independiente FBC

DLWLWLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Atletico Naciones Unidas Paraguay Cup	5-0	10-0	6	0	W
18/07	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	2-3	1	7	L
13/07	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	2-2	7	2	D
08/07	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-2	2-2	6	6	D
30/06	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
06/06	Carapegua Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
30/05	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-2	1	8	L
23/05	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	3-2	3	5	W
19/05	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
15/05	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-1	4	7	D

Deportivo Capiata

DWLWDWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Sportivo Iteno Paraguay Cup	0-1	2-3	9	5	L
20/07	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
14/07	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
07/07	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
27/06	Carapegua Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-1	5-2	5	2	W
07/06	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
31/05	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
23/05	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
19/05	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
14/05	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente FBC vs Deportivo Capiata?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente FBC win (39%). Probabilities: Independiente FBC 39%, draw 28%, Deportivo Capiata 34%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente FBC vs Deportivo Capiata?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Independiente FBC 1.5 · Deportivo Capiata 1.39), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente FBC vs Deportivo Capiata?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.