Football · Poland III Liga · 16/10, 19:00

Prediction: Polonia Nysa vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Team pages: Polonia Nysa · Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Polonia Nysa1.29

Karkonosze Jelenia Gora1.49

1X2

32% 27% 41%

Polonia Nysa Draw Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Polonia Nysa 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLWLW

Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLDLWLWLW

Head-to-head

Polonia Nysa 0–2 Karkonosze Jelenia Gora (2 last)

Karkonosze Jelenia Gora3-1Polonia Nysa
Polonia Nysa0-4Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Polonia Nysa 1443 · Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 1526

	Polonia Nysa	Draw	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Our model	32%	28%	41%
Market	33%	26%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karkonosze Jelenia Gora (rating 1443 vs 1526).
H2H favours Karkonosze Jelenia Gora: 2-0-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Polonia Nysa	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	3.4 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.50

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 2.79 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:03 +6’	2.75	3.50	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:12 +52’	2.79	3.42	2.11
09:04 +1’	2.80▲	3.28▼	2.13▲
10:22 +46’	2.77▼	3.39▲	2.10▼
15:00 +24’	2.79▲	3.41▲	2.11▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Polonia Nysa 0–0–2 Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Poland III Liga	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	3-1 HT 1-0	Polonia Nysa
31/10/25 Poland III Liga	Polonia Nysa	0-4 HT 0-1	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	12	6	2	4	18	17	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	12	2	7	3	12	13	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Polonia Nysa	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Sparta Katowice	0-4 L	1-0 W
Sleza Wroclaw	1-3 L	0-2 L
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	0-2 L	2-0 W
Stal Brzeg	3-2 W	0-1 L
KS Stilon Gorzow	1-1 D	4-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Karkonosze Jelenia Gora (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Polonia Nysa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
02/10	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
26/09	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
18/09	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
05/09	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	0	4	L
29/08	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
19/08	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
15/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	9	2	D

Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

DWLDLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	7	3	L
26/09	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
19/09	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	2-1	4-2	10	2	W
05/09	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
29/08	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
23/08	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	7	1	L
19/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	3-0	3-0	5	3	W
14/08	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Polonia Nysa vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Karkonosze Jelenia Gora win (41%). Probabilities: Polonia Nysa 32%, draw 27%, Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 41%.

How many goals are expected in Polonia Nysa vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Polonia Nysa 1.29 · Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 1.49), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Polonia Nysa vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.