Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 26/07, 15:00
Prediction: Encarnacion FC vs Fernando de la Mora
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.91Total
Encarnacion FC1.46
Fernando de la Mora1.45
1X2
Encarnacion FC
Draw
Fernando de la Mora
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Encarnacion FC
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Fernando de la Mora
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Encarnacion FC
2–2–1
Fernando de la Mora
(5 last)
- Fernando de la Mora0-2Encarnacion FC
- Encarnacion FC1-1Fernando de la Mora
- Fernando de la Mora1-1Encarnacion FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Encarnacion FC 1439 · Fernando de la Mora 1510
| Encarnacion FC | Draw | Fernando de la Mora | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Market | 37% | 28% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fernando de la Mora (rating 1439 vs 1510).
- H2H favours Encarnacion FC: 2-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Encarnacion FC | Fernando de la Mora | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.7 | 2.5 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.8 | 2.4 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.3 | 5.3 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Encarnacion FC 2–2–1 Fernando de la Mora
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia | Fernando de la Mora | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Encarnacion FC |
| 26/09/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia | Encarnacion FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Fernando de la Mora |
| 21/06/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia | Fernando de la Mora | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Encarnacion FC |
| 26/07/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia | Encarnacion FC | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Fernando de la Mora |
| 21/04/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia | Fernando de la Mora | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Encarnacion FC |
Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 de Junio de Villa Hayes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 11 | 33 |
| 2 | Club Dr Benjamin Aceval | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 13 | 31 |
| 3 | Deportivo Santaní | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 27 |
| 4 | General Caballero JLM | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 30 | 21 | 27 |
| 5 | Sol de America | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 13 | 23 |
| 6 | Club Atlético Tembetary | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 22 |
| 7 | Deportivo Capiata | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 18 | 22 |
| 8 | Guairena FC | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 19 | 21 |
| 9 | Independiente FBC | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 20 |
| 10 | Carapegua | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 27 | 19 |
| 11 | Resistencia FC | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 20 | 18 |
| 12 | Fernando de la Mora | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 24 | 18 |
| 13 | Tacuary | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 23 | 14 |
| 14 | Paraguari AC | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 13 |
| 15 | Encarnacion FC | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 23 | 11 |
| 16 | 3 de Noviembre | 15 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Encarnacion FC | Fernando de la Mora |
|---|---|---|
| 3 de Noviembre | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| General Caballero JLM | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| Guairena FC | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Resistencia FC | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Sol de America | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Capiata | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Independiente FBC | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 6 L | 1 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Encarnacion FC (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Encarnacion FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Humaita FBC Paraguay Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 19/07 | 3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 11/07 | General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 06/07 | Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 30/06 | Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 08/06 | Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | Independiente FBC Paraguay Division Intermedia |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 19/05 | Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 16/05 | Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 8 | L |
Fernando de la Mora
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 15/07 | Atletico Colegiales Paraguay Cup |
5-0 | 11-0 | 14 | 3 | W |
| 10/07 | Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 03/07 | 3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 27/06 | General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia |
1-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 06/06 | Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia |
1-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 19/05 | Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/05 | Independiente FBC Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Encarnacion FC vs Fernando de la Mora?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Encarnacion FC win (37%). Probabilities: Encarnacion FC 37%, draw 27%, Fernando de la Mora 36%.
How many goals are expected in Encarnacion FC vs Fernando de la Mora?
The model expects 2.91 goals (Encarnacion FC 1.46 · Fernando de la Mora 1.45), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Encarnacion FC vs Fernando de la Mora?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.