Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 29/08, 19:15
Prediction: Algeciras CF vs FC Cartagena
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.08Total
Algeciras CF1.17
FC Cartagena0.91
1X2
Algeciras CF
Draw
FC Cartagena
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 65%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Algeciras CF
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
FC Cartagena
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Algeciras CF
0–4–2
FC Cartagena
(6 last)
- Algeciras CF2-2FC Cartagena
- FC Cartagena2-0Algeciras CF
- Algeciras CF1-1FC Cartagena
- FC Cartagena2-0Algeciras CF
- FC Cartagena1-1Algeciras CF
- Algeciras CF1-1FC Cartagena
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Algeciras CF 1531 · FC Cartagena 1491
| Algeciras CF | Draw | FC Cartagena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 32% | 27% |
| Market | 42% | 30% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Algeciras CF (rating 1531 vs 1491).
- H2H favours FC Cartagena: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Algeciras CF | FC Cartagena | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.1 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4 | 2.2 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.5 | 5.3 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Algeciras CF 0–4–2 FC Cartagena
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 | Algeciras CF | 2-2 HT 2-2 | FC Cartagena |
| 17/10/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 | FC Cartagena | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Algeciras CF |
| 23/02/20 Spain Segunda B Group 4 | Algeciras CF | 1-1 HT 1-1 | FC Cartagena |
| 06/10/19 Spain Segunda B Group 4 | FC Cartagena | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Algeciras CF |
| 03/04/16 Spain Segunda B Group 4 | FC Cartagena | 1-1 | Algeciras CF |
| 15/11/15 Spain Segunda B Group 4 | Algeciras CF | 1-1 | FC Cartagena |
Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alcorcon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Aguilas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Algeciras CF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Antequera | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atletico Madrid B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Teruel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CE Europa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rayo Majadahonda | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Cartagena | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gimnastic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hercules | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Juventud Torremolinos CF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real Jaen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real Madrid B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real Murcia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real Zaragoza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Huesca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | UD Ibiza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | UE Sant Andreu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Villarreal B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Algeciras CF | FC Cartagena |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid B | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Atletico Sanluqueno | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| UD Ibiza | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Gimnastic | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Algeciras CF (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Algeciras CF
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05 | Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Atletico Sanluqueno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 01/05 | FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 14 | D |
| 26/04 | Sevilla Atletico Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | SD Tarazona Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | Villarreal B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 05/04 | UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 28/03 | CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 22/03 | Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
FC Cartagena
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05 | Betis Deportivo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 16/05 | UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Alcorcon Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 01/05 | Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 14 | D |
| 26/04 | Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | Eldense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 11/04 | Antequera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 04/04 | Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 28/03 | Atletico Sanluqueno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 21/03 | Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Algeciras CF vs FC Cartagena?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Algeciras CF win (41%). Probabilities: Algeciras CF 41%, draw 31%, FC Cartagena 28%.
How many goals are expected in Algeciras CF vs FC Cartagena?
The model expects 2.08 goals (Algeciras CF 1.17 · FC Cartagena 0.91), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Algeciras CF vs FC Cartagena?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.