Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 29/08, 21:30
Prediction: Hercules vs Real Murcia
Team pages: Real Murcia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.01Total
Hercules0.97
Real Murcia1.04
1X2
Hercules
Draw
Real Murcia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 67%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Hercules
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Real Murcia
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hercules
4–1–1
Real Murcia
(6 last)
- Hercules2-0Real Murcia
- Real Murcia1-1Hercules
- Hercules1-0Real Murcia
- Real Murcia1-0Hercules
- Hercules2-0Real Murcia
- Hercules2-1Real Murcia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hercules 1496 · Real Murcia 1563
| Hercules | Draw | Real Murcia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 33% | 35% |
| Market | 33% | 30% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.01 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Murcia (rating 1496 vs 1563).
- H2H favours Hercules: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hercules | Real Murcia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.1 | 1.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 1.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.4 | 2.9 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.4 | 5.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hercules 4–1–1 Real Murcia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 | Hercules | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Real Murcia |
| 11/01/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 | Real Murcia | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Hercules |
| 02/08/25 Europe Friendlies | Hercules | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Real Murcia |
| 18/01/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 | Real Murcia | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Hercules |
| 21/09/24 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 | Hercules | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Real Murcia |
| 17/08/24 Europe Friendlies | Hercules | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Real Murcia |
Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alcorcon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Aguilas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Algeciras CF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Antequera | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atletico Madrid B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Teruel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CE Europa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rayo Majadahonda | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Cartagena | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gimnastic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hercules | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Juventud Torremolinos CF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real Jaen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real Madrid B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real Murcia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real Zaragoza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Huesca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | UD Ibiza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | UE Sant Andreu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Villarreal B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hercules | Real Murcia |
|---|---|---|
| Gimnastic | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Sabadell | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Betis Deportivo | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hercules
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05 | Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 03/05 | Villarreal B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 19/04 | Sabadell Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 12/04 | Atletico Sanluqueno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 05/04 | Alcorcon Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 29/03 | Marbella FC Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 20/03 | Betis Deportivo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
Real Murcia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | Eldense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Betis Deportivo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Sabadell Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 17/04 | Antequera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 11/04 | Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 8 | L |
| 05/04 | Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 29/03 | Sevilla Atletico Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 22/03 | SD Tarazona Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hercules vs Real Murcia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Murcia win (36%). Probabilities: Hercules 33%, draw 32%, Real Murcia 36%.
How many goals are expected in Hercules vs Real Murcia?
The model expects 2.01 goals (Hercules 0.97 · Real Murcia 1.04), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Hercules vs Real Murcia?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.