Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 17/10, 21:00

Prediction: Algeciras CF vs Hercules

Team pages: Algeciras CF · Hercules

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.1Total

Algeciras CF1.04

Hercules1.06

1X2

34% 31% 35%

Algeciras CF Draw Hercules

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Algeciras CF 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLDWWL

Hercules 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLLWWWDW

Head-to-head

Algeciras CF 2–2 Hercules (4 last)

Algeciras CF0-2Hercules
Hercules0-1Algeciras CF
Hercules1-2Algeciras CF
Algeciras CF2-3Hercules

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Algeciras CF 1483 · Hercules 1522

	Algeciras CF	Draw	Hercules
Our model	33%	33%	34%
Market	35%	30%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Algeciras CF	Hercules
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.8	1.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.2	0.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.7	2.7 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.00

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.05

Under 2.251.75

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
15:39 +2’	2.60	3.00	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Algeciras CF 2–0–2 Hercules

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Algeciras CF	0-2 HT 0-1	Hercules
12/09/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Hercules	0-1 HT 0-0	Algeciras CF
11/05/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Hercules	1-2 HT 0-1	Algeciras CF
11/10/24 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Algeciras CF	2-3 HT 2-2	Hercules

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Zaragoza	7	5	1	1	16	10	16
2	Real Murcia	7	5	0	2	11	7	15
3	Villarreal B	7	4	2	1	15	9	14
4	Hercules	7	4	1	2	6	5	13
5	Alcorcon	7	3	3	1	13	5	12
6	FC Cartagena	7	3	3	1	10	5	12
7	Real Jaen	7	3	3	1	11	8	12
8	Antequera	7	2	4	1	11	9	10
9	Huesca	7	2	4	1	9	9	10
9	UD Ibiza	7	3	1	3	9	9	10
11	Atletico Madrid B	7	2	3	2	15	12	9
12	Real Madrid B	7	2	3	2	8	7	9
13	UE Sant Andreu	7	2	2	3	7	8	8
14	Gimnastic	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
15	Algeciras CF	7	2	1	4	9	13	7
16	CE Europa	7	2	1	4	6	11	7
17	Aguilas	7	1	3	3	7	12	6
18	Teruel	7	1	2	4	3	12	5
19	Rayo Majadahonda	7	1	1	5	5	8	4
20	Juventud Torremolinos CF	7	0	2	5	8	18	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Algeciras CF	Hercules
CE Europa	1-2 L	2-1 W
Juventud Torremolinos CF	2-1 W	1-0 W
Aguilas	1-1 D	1-0 W
Gimnastic	2-4 L	1-1 D
Atletico Madrid B	1-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hercules (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Algeciras CF

WLLLLLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
04/10	Rayo Majadahonda Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	7	9	W
26/09	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
20/09	Aguilas Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-1	5	9	D
11/09	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-3	2-4	3	5	L
04/09	Villarreal B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
29/08	FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-2	1-3	8	5	L
23/05	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-3	1-3	2	2	L
16/05	Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
09/05	Atletico Sanluqueno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	5	4	W

Hercules

WWDLLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	UE Sant Andreu Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-0	10	8	W
03/10	Real Jaen Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
26/09	Aguilas Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
20/09	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
12/09	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-1	7	4	W
06/09	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-2	9	6	L
29/08	Real Murcia Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-2	7	7	L
23/05	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
16/05	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
09/05	UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-1	3	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Algeciras CF vs Hercules?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hercules win (35%). Probabilities: Algeciras CF 34%, draw 31%, Hercules 35%.

How many goals are expected in Algeciras CF vs Hercules?

The model expects 2.1 goals (Algeciras CF 1.04 · Hercules 1.06), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Algeciras CF vs Hercules?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.