Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 23/07, 16:30

Prediction: Metallurg Bekabad vs Gazalkent

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.11Total
Metallurg Bekabad1.89
Gazalkent1.23
1X2
52% 24% 24%
Metallurg Bekabad Draw Gazalkent
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Metallurg Bekabad 5-3-2 (W-D-L)
WWWDLDWDLW
Gazalkent 5-2-3 (W-D-L)
DLWLWWLWDW
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Metallurg Bekabad 1540 · Gazalkent 1529
Metallurg BekabadDrawGazalkent
Our model52%25%24%
Market52%24%24%
Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

  • Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Metallurg BekabadGazalkent
Goals for / against (FT)2.5 / 11.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)0.9 / 0.40.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)40/40/20%30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)1.5 / 4.71.9 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.1 / 0.24.8 / 0.3

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 FK Orol Nukus 10820 24726
2 Shurtan 10721 15823
3 FC Lochin 10631 19721
4 Metallurg Bekabad 10532 23818
5 Kattaqorgon 10532 11618
6 Gazalkent 10433 141215
7 Fardu Ferghana 10343 131913
8 FC Yaypan Fergana 10415 132013
9 Olympic Mobiuz 10334 181312
10 Respublika FA 10334 121012
11 Jayxun 10226 7168
12 BuxDu 10217 7217
13 Pakhtakor Tashkent II 10118 6234
14 PFC Terdu 10118 8204

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentMetallurg BekabadGazalkent
Fardu Ferghana 7-0 W 2-2 D
Shurtan 0-1 L 2-0 W
Jayxun 0-2 L 0-0 D
Pakhtakor Tashkent II 5-0 W 2-1 W
PFC Terdu 3-1 W 1-2 L
Record vs common 3 W 0 D 2 L 2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Metallurg Bekabad (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Metallurg Bekabad

WWWDLDWDLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
08/06 Fardu Ferghana
Uzbekistan 1st Division
3-0 7-0 55 W
04/06 Shurtan
Uzbekistan 1st Division
0-0 0-1 42 L
31/05 Kattaqorgon
Uzbekistan 1st Division
1-1 1-1 32 D
16/05 FK Orol Nukus
Uzbekistan Cup
0-0 2-1 63 W
10/05 AGMK
Uzbekistan Cup
0-2 3-3 75 D
05/05 Jayxun
Uzbekistan 1st Division
0-1 0-2 56 L
30/04 Olympic Mobiuz
Uzbekistan 1st Division
0-0 1-1 01 D
25/04 Pakhtakor Tashkent II
Uzbekistan 1st Division
1-0 5-0 34 W
20/04 BuxDu
Uzbekistan 1st Division
2-0 3-0 82 W
15/04 PFC Terdu
Uzbekistan 1st Division
2-0 3-1 63 W

Gazalkent

DLWLWWLWDW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
10/06 Shurtan
Uzbekistan 1st Division
0-0 2-0 03 W
03/06 Jayxun
Uzbekistan 1st Division
0-0 0-0 64 D
30/05 Pakhtakor Tashkent II
Uzbekistan 1st Division
1-0 2-1 55 W
20/05 Lokomotiv Tashkent
Uzbekistan Cup
0-2 1-5 37 L
15/05 FC Lochin
Uzbekistan Cup
0-0 1-0 16 W
10/05 Dinamo Samarqand
Uzbekistan Cup
1-0 3-2 23 W
06/05 PFC Terdu
Uzbekistan 1st Division
0-1 1-2 44 L
30/04 FC Yaypan Fergana
Uzbekistan 1st Division
1-1 2-1 108 W
26/04 FC Lochin
Uzbekistan 1st Division
0-1 0-2 26 L
21/04 Fardu Ferghana
Uzbekistan 1st Division
1-0 2-2 45 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Metallurg Bekabad vs Gazalkent?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Metallurg Bekabad win (52%). Probabilities: Metallurg Bekabad 52%, draw 24%, Gazalkent 24%.

How many goals are expected in Metallurg Bekabad vs Gazalkent?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Metallurg Bekabad 1.89 · Gazalkent 1.23), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Metallurg Bekabad vs Gazalkent?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.