Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 14/08, 17:30
Prediction: PFK Turan Tovuz vs FK Gabala
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.42Total
PFK Turan Tovuz1.29
FK Gabala1.13
1X2
PFK Turan Tovuz
Draw
FK Gabala
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
PFK Turan Tovuz
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
FK Gabala
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
PFK Turan Tovuz
5–1
FK Gabala
(6 last)
- PFK Turan Tovuz3-2FK Gabala
- FK Gabala0-3PFK Turan Tovuz
- PFK Turan Tovuz1-0FK Gabala
- FK Gabala1-2PFK Turan Tovuz
- PFK Turan Tovuz2-1FK Gabala
- FK Gabala4-0PFK Turan Tovuz
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · PFK Turan Tovuz 1513 · FK Gabala 1494
| PFK Turan Tovuz | Draw | FK Gabala | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Market | 39% | 30% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours PFK Turan Tovuz: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| PFK Turan Tovuz | FK Gabala | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.3 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.2 | 1.9 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · PFK Turan Tovuz 5–0–1 FK Gabala
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | PFK Turan Tovuz | 3-2 HT 1-1 | FK Gabala |
| 24/02/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Gabala | 0-3 HT 0-2 | PFK Turan Tovuz |
| 13/09/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | PFK Turan Tovuz | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FK Gabala |
| 13/04/24 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Gabala | 1-2 HT 0-0 | PFK Turan Tovuz |
| 13/02/24 Azerbaijan Premier League | PFK Turan Tovuz | 2-1 HT 1-0 | FK Gabala |
| 25/11/23 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Gabala | 4-0 HT 1-0 | PFK Turan Tovuz |
Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Araz FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FK Kapaz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FK Gabala | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Imisli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | PFK Turan Tovuz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FK Qarabag | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sabah | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Safa Baku | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Shamakhi FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FK Sumqayit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Zira IK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | PFK Turan Tovuz | FK Gabala |
|---|---|---|
| Shamakhi FK | 2-3 L | 3-1 W |
| FK Karvan | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| FK Qarabag | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Zira IK | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Araz FK | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| FK Sumqayit | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Imisli | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: PFK Turan Tovuz (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
PFK Turan Tovuz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05 | Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 04/05 | FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 27/04 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 21/04 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 17/04 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 07/04 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 03/04 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
FK Gabala
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05 | Energetik Mingechevir Azerbaijan Premier League Play-Offs |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
3-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 15/05 | FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 12/04 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 05/04 | FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 21/03 | PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in PFK Turan Tovuz vs FK Gabala?
According to our model, the most likely result is a PFK Turan Tovuz win (39%). Probabilities: PFK Turan Tovuz 39%, draw 30%, FK Gabala 31%.
How many goals are expected in PFK Turan Tovuz vs FK Gabala?
The model expects 2.42 goals (PFK Turan Tovuz 1.29 · FK Gabala 1.13), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in PFK Turan Tovuz vs FK Gabala?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.