Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 13/09, 16:00

Prediction: FK Siauliai vs Hegelmann Litauen

Team pages: FK Siauliai · Hegelmann Litauen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

FK Siauliai1.29

Hegelmann Litauen1.33

1X2

35% 28% 37%

FK Siauliai Draw Hegelmann Litauen

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Siauliai 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWLLL

Hegelmann Litauen 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWLLLDDL

Head-to-head

FK Siauliai 0–2–4 Hegelmann Litauen (6 last)

FK Siauliai0-2Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen1-1FK Siauliai
Hegelmann Litauen1-1FK Siauliai
FK Siauliai0-1Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen3-1FK Siauliai
Hegelmann Litauen5-2FK Siauliai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Siauliai 1378 · Hegelmann Litauen 1437

	FK Siauliai	Draw	Hegelmann Litauen
Our model	35%	29%	36%
Market	36%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hegelmann Litauen (rating 1378 vs 1437).
H2H favours Hegelmann Litauen: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Siauliai	Hegelmann Litauen
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.4	1.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.2	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 6.5	2.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.40

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.66 ★
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	2.35 → 2.40▲	Pinn 2.51

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:09 +4’	2.50	3.50	2.35
07:13 +6’	2.50	3.40▼	2.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:23 +48’	2.67	3.25	2.53
07:01 +81’	2.66▼	3.29▲	2.51▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Siauliai 0–2–4 Hegelmann Litauen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/07/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Siauliai	0-2 HT 0-2	Hegelmann Litauen
09/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Hegelmann Litauen	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Siauliai
11/03/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Hegelmann Litauen	1-1 HT 1-0	FK Siauliai
14/09/25 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Siauliai	0-1 HT 0-0	Hegelmann Litauen
07/08/25 Lithuania Cup	Hegelmann Litauen	3-1 HT 1-0	FK Siauliai
05/07/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Hegelmann Litauen	5-2 HT 1-1	FK Siauliai

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Suduva Marijampole	26	13	9	4	38	24	48
2	FK Kauno Zalgiris	25	12	9	4	51	17	45
3	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	25	12	4	9	38	29	40
4	FK Transinvest	26	11	6	9	37	34	39
5	FK Dziugas Telsiai	27	10	8	9	36	38	38
6	Banga Gargzdai	26	10	8	8	29	25	38
7	Panevezys	27	9	5	13	29	42	32
8	Hegelmann Litauen	27	4	12	11	30	47	24
9	FK Siauliai	27	3	7	17	24	56	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Siauliai	Hegelmann Litauen
FK Zalgiris Vilnius	0-1 L	2-3 L
Suduva Marijampole	1-2 L	1-5 L
FK Transinvest	0-3 L	1-2 L
Panevezys	1-0 W	1-3 L
FK Dziugas Telsiai	3-4 L	2-2 D
Banga Gargzdai	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Hegelmann Litauen (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Siauliai

LLLLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
30/08	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-2	7	1	L
24/08	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-3	6	3	L
17/08	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
09/08	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	1-3	3-4	7	6	L
03/08	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-2	1-3	9	8	L
24/07	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-2	5	8	L
05/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-3	8	0	L
29/06	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-3	8	2	L
20/06	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	1-2	2-3	8	5	L

Hegelmann Litauen

LDLWLLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-3	1	0	L
31/08	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
23/08	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
08/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-2	0	4	L
02/08	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-2	9	3	L
27/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	2-3	6	3	L
24/07	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	2-0	5	8	W
20/07	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-3	1-5	2	2	L
04/07	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
28/06	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-2	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Siauliai vs Hegelmann Litauen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hegelmann Litauen win (37%). Probabilities: FK Siauliai 35%, draw 28%, Hegelmann Litauen 37%.

How many goals are expected in FK Siauliai vs Hegelmann Litauen?

The model expects 2.62 goals (FK Siauliai 1.29 · Hegelmann Litauen 1.33), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Siauliai vs Hegelmann Litauen?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.