Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 13/09, 13:30
Prediction: Panevezys vs FK Kauno Zalgiris
Team pages: Panevezys · FK Kauno Zalgiris
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.58Total
Panevezys0.86
FK Kauno Zalgiris1.72
1X2
Panevezys
Draw
FK Kauno Zalgiris
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Panevezys
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
FK Kauno Zalgiris
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Panevezys
1–1–4
FK Kauno Zalgiris
(6 last)
- FK Kauno Zalgiris3-0Panevezys
- Panevezys1-1FK Kauno Zalgiris
- FK Kauno Zalgiris4-0Panevezys
- FK Kauno Zalgiris1-0Panevezys
- FK Kauno Zalgiris3-2Panevezys
- Panevezys1-0FK Kauno Zalgiris
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Panevezys 1504 · FK Kauno Zalgiris 1560
| Panevezys | Draw | FK Kauno Zalgiris | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 17% | 26% | 57% |
| Market | 19% | 23% | 58% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Kauno Zalgiris (rating 1504 vs 1560).
- H2H favours FK Kauno Zalgiris: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Panevezys | FK Kauno Zalgiris | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.1 | 1.9 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.7 | 2.5 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.2 | 4.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Panevezys 1–1–4 FK Kauno Zalgiris
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/26 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Panevezys |
| 10/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga | Panevezys | 1-1 HT 0-1 | FK Kauno Zalgiris |
| 10/03/26 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Panevezys |
| 16/02/26 Lithuania Super Cup | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Panevezys |
| 02/11/25 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Panevezys |
| 24/08/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Panevezys | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FK Kauno Zalgiris |
Standings · Lithuania A Lyga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suduva Marijampole | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 38 | 24 | 48 |
| 2 | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 51 | 17 | 45 |
| 3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 29 | 40 |
| 4 | FK Transinvest | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 34 | 39 |
| 5 | FK Dziugas Telsiai | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 36 | 38 | 38 |
| 6 | Banga Gargzdai | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 29 | 25 | 38 |
| 7 | Panevezys | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29 | 42 | 32 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 27 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 30 | 47 | 24 |
| 9 | FK Siauliai | 27 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 24 | 56 | 16 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Panevezys | FK Kauno Zalgiris |
|---|---|---|
| Hegelmann Litauen | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Banga Gargzdai | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Suduva Marijampole | 0-2 L | 5-1 W |
| FK Transinvest | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| FK Dziugas Telsiai | 1-1 D | 5-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 2 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Panevezys
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 03/09 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 30/08 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 17/08 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 10/08 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 03/08 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 11/07 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 29/06 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
FK Kauno Zalgiris
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 06/09 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 16/08 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 08/08 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 11/07 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 03/07 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 17/06 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 14/06 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Panevezys vs FK Kauno Zalgiris?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Kauno Zalgiris win (58%). Probabilities: Panevezys 18%, draw 24%, FK Kauno Zalgiris 58%.
How many goals are expected in Panevezys vs FK Kauno Zalgiris?
The model expects 2.58 goals (Panevezys 0.86 · FK Kauno Zalgiris 1.72), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Panevezys vs FK Kauno Zalgiris?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.