Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 13/09, 17:45
Prediction: Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Team pages: Suduva Marijampole · FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.03Total
Suduva Marijampole1.5
FK Zalgiris Vilnius1.53
1X2
Suduva Marijampole
Draw
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Suduva Marijampole
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Suduva Marijampole
0–2–4
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
(6 last)
- Suduva Marijampole1-1FK Zalgiris Vilnius
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-0Suduva Marijampole
- Suduva Marijampole1-3FK Zalgiris Vilnius
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-0Suduva Marijampole
- Suduva Marijampole2-2FK Zalgiris Vilnius
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius3-0Suduva Marijampole
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Suduva Marijampole 1568 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1510
| Suduva Marijampole | Draw | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Suduva Marijampole (rating 1568 vs 1510).
- H2H favours FK Zalgiris Vilnius: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 13 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Suduva Marijampole | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1 | 1.7 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.3 | 3.2 / 7.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Suduva Marijampole 0–2–4 FK Zalgiris Vilnius
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga | Suduva Marijampole | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
| 10/03/26 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Suduva Marijampole |
| 29/09/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Suduva Marijampole | 1-3 HT 0-2 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
| 07/08/25 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Suduva Marijampole |
| 19/06/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Suduva Marijampole | 2-2 HT 1-1 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
| 16/04/25 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Suduva Marijampole |
Standings · Lithuania A Lyga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suduva Marijampole | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 38 | 24 | 48 |
| 2 | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 51 | 17 | 45 |
| 3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 29 | 40 |
| 4 | FK Transinvest | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 34 | 39 |
| 5 | FK Dziugas Telsiai | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 36 | 38 | 38 |
| 6 | Banga Gargzdai | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 29 | 25 | 38 |
| 7 | Panevezys | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29 | 42 | 32 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 27 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 30 | 47 | 24 |
| 9 | FK Siauliai | 27 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 24 | 56 | 16 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Suduva Marijampole | FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
|---|---|---|
| FK Transinvest | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| FK Siauliai | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Panevezys | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| FK Dziugas Telsiai | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Banga Gargzdai | 3-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Hegelmann Litauen | 5-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 0 L | 4 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Suduva Marijampole (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Suduva Marijampole
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
0-2 | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 06/09 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 23/08 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 17/08 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 20/07 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
3-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 06/07 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 29/06 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 21/06 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 15 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 16/08 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 2-3 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 27/07 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 19/07 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 28/06 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 20/06 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 16/06 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Zalgiris Vilnius win (37%). Probabilities: Suduva Marijampole 36%, draw 27%, FK Zalgiris Vilnius 37%.
How many goals are expected in Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
The model expects 3.03 goals (Suduva Marijampole 1.5 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.53), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.