Football · Chile Primera B · 09/09, 23:00
Prediction: Deportes Recoleta vs San Marcos De Arica
Team pages: Deportes Recoleta · San Marcos De Arica
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.03Total
Deportes Recoleta1.03
San Marcos De Arica0.99
1X2
Deportes Recoleta
Draw
San Marcos De Arica
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 67%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Deportes Recoleta
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
San Marcos De Arica
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportes Recoleta
0–1–5
San Marcos De Arica
(6 last)
- San Marcos De Arica1-0Deportes Recoleta
- Deportes Recoleta0-0San Marcos De Arica
- San Marcos De Arica2-1Deportes Recoleta
- San Marcos De Arica2-1Deportes Recoleta
- Deportes Recoleta1-2San Marcos De Arica
- San Marcos De Arica3-2Deportes Recoleta
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportes Recoleta 1496 · San Marcos De Arica 1437
| Deportes Recoleta | Draw | San Marcos De Arica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 33% | 32% |
| Market | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportes Recoleta (rating 1496 vs 1437).
- H2H favours San Marcos De Arica: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportes Recoleta | San Marcos De Arica | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.6 | 2.3 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 5.3 / 0.8 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportes Recoleta 0–1–5 San Marcos De Arica
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/26 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Deportes Recoleta |
| 08/09/25 Chile Primera B | Deportes Recoleta | 0-0 HT 0-0 | San Marcos De Arica |
| 04/05/25 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Deportes Recoleta |
| 18/08/24 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Deportes Recoleta |
| 07/04/24 Chile Primera B | Deportes Recoleta | 1-2 HT 1-1 | San Marcos De Arica |
| 29/07/23 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Deportes Recoleta |
Standings · Chile Primera B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Wanderers | 23 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 40 | 22 | 44 |
| 2 | Cobreloa | 23 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 27 | 41 |
| 3 | San Luis Quillota | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 28 | 38 |
| 4 | CD Antofagasta | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 24 | 37 |
| 5 | Magallanes | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 37 | 36 |
| 6 | Union Espanola | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 29 | 35 |
| 7 | Deportes Recoleta | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 34 | 32 | 34 |
| 8 | Puerto Montt | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 27 | 34 |
| 9 | San Marcos De Arica | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 27 | 21 | 33 |
| 10 | Deportes Copiapo | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 32 | 37 | 30 |
| 11 | Deportes Temuco | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 36 | 34 | 28 |
| 12 | Deportes Iquique | 23 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 31 | 28 | 25 |
| 13 | Union San Felipe | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 37 | 22 |
| 14 | Curico Unido | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 34 | 21 |
| 15 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz | 23 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 25 | 38 | 18 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 23 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 37 | 15 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportes Recoleta | San Marcos De Arica |
|---|---|---|
| Deportes Copiapo | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Deportes Temuco | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Rangers de Talca | 4-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Union San Felipe | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Union Espanola | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Deportes Iquique | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| San Luis Quillota | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 4 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportes Recoleta (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportes Recoleta
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Curico Unido Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 22/08 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 18/08 | Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 13/08 | Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 4-2 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 08/08 | Union San Felipe Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 02/08 | Puerto Montt Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 28/07 | Union Espanola Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 07/06 | Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
San Marcos De Arica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 01/09 | Cobreloa Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 16/08 | Union Espanola Chile Primera B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 13/08 | Union San Felipe Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 01/08 | Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 26/07 | Magallanes Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 12 | W |
| 06/06 | San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportes Recoleta vs San Marcos De Arica?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportes Recoleta win (36%). Probabilities: Deportes Recoleta 36%, draw 30%, San Marcos De Arica 34%.
How many goals are expected in Deportes Recoleta vs San Marcos De Arica?
The model expects 2.03 goals (Deportes Recoleta 1.03 · San Marcos De Arica 0.99), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportes Recoleta vs San Marcos De Arica?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.